Match Info

Date: 16 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Sandefjord Arena (Sandefjord)

Referee: Hagenes K. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Discovery+
Finland	Discovery+


	Sandefjord		Jerv

	1	X	2
	1.61	4.33	5	Watch
	1.61	4.2	4.6
	1.62	4.3	5
	1.59	4.2	4.7
	1.63	4.6	5.02
	1.53	4	5
	1.6	4.45	4.75
	1.6	4.2	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.5)	4.29 ↓ (4.47)	4.86 ↓ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sandefjord
58.7%

Draw
21.9%

Jerv
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

20.8%

17.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

20.2%

16.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sandefjord has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Jerv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sandefjord than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sandefjord, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.8%	4.3%	47.8%

Sandefjord - Jerv Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Sandefjord will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). Jerv will win (votes: 11 - 47.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 4.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sandefjord: 27.4% – 68.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Eliteserien (Relegation) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen).

Sandefjord has the most likely position - 14 (57.8%), has project points - 29, has currently - 23, has a chance of relegated (45%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Jerv has the most likely position - 16 (90.83%), has project points - 19, has currently - 14, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has small quality 17, small importance 29, small match rating 23. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sandefjord won 5.

One and the other team has got a line of lost games.

Jerv could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Sandefjord is a favorite.

There will not play in Sandefjord: Foss S. M. (Injury) Mork S. (Injury) Singh H. (Injury)

There will not play in Jerv: Ness T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sandefjord: Chaib Y. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Sandefjord won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Sandefjord won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sandefjord Fotball
Norwegian Eliteserien
09.10.22	Bodø Glimt - Sandefjord	4:1 ✺
02.10.22	Sandefjord - Sarpsborg 08	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	Vålerenga - Sandefjord	4:0 ✺
10.09.22	Sandefjord - Odd	1:3 ✺
04.09.22	Kristiansund - Sandefjord	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTLLL
- FK Jerv
Norwegian Eliteserien
02.10.22	Hamarkameratene - Jerv	2:1 ✺
18.09.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Jerv	4:3 ✺
11.09.22	Jerv - Molde	2:4 ✺
04.09.22	Odd - Jerv	2:1 ✺
27.08.22	Jerv - Bodø Glimt	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
16.07.22	Jerv - Sandefjord	1:2
Club Friendly
12.02.22	Sandefjord - Jerv	4:1
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
02.11.19	Sandefjord - Jerv	1:0
30.06.19	Jerv - Sandefjord	0:2
Norwegian NM Cup
22.05.19	Jerv - Sandefjord	1:2
Norwegian Adeccoligaen
18.09.16	Jerv - Sandefjord	2:2
26.06.16	Sandefjord - Jerv	3:2

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