Match Info

Date: 30 July 2022, Saturday

Location: J.J. Ugland Stadion – Levermyr (Grimstad)

Referee: Aslam U. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Discovery+


	Jerv		Vålerenga

	1	X	2
	5	5	1.53	Watch
	5.5	4.4	1.42
	5.6	4.7	1.52
	5.6	4.6	1.47
	5.6	4.92	1.54
	5.8	4	1.47
	6.15	4.2	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.61 ↑ (4.14)	4.55 ↑ (3.47)	1.5 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jerv
16.7%

Draw
20.6%

Vålerenga
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

26.7%

50.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

26.6%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jerv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jerv's form might have worsened.

Vålerenga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vålerenga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jerv than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jerv, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vålerenga than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vålerenga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.1%	0%	73.9%

Jerv - Vålerenga Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Jerv will win (votes: 6 - 26.1%). Vålerenga will win (votes: 17 - 73.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vålerenga: 56% – 91.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ OBOS~ligaen and 9).

Jerv has the most likely position - 15 (54.14%), has project points - 22, has currently - 11, has a good chance of relegated (89%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Vålerenga has the most likely position - 6 (14.11%), has project points - 42, has currently - 20, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 20, small importance 17, small match rating 19. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Jerv is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Vålerenga is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Vålerenga have a series of home games.

In this match Vålerenga is a favorite.

There will not play in Vålerenga: Borchgrevink C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Jerv: Brenden N. E. (Injury) Ness T. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Jerv won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Jerv
Norwegian Eliteserien
23.07.22	Bodø Glimt - Jerv	5:0 ✺
16.07.22	Jerv - Sandefjord	1:2 ✺
10.07.22	Rosenborg - Jerv	3:2 ✺
06.07.22	Molde - Jerv	1:1 ✺
02.07.22	Jerv - Haugesund	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LLLTW
- Vålerenga Fotball
Norwegian Eliteserien
24.07.22	Vålerenga - Viking Stavanger	4:2 ✺
17.07.22	Sarpsborg 08 - Vålerenga	0:1 ✺
10.07.22	Vålerenga - Kristiansund	3:0 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
29.06.22	Vålerenga - Bodø Glimt	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
26.06.22	Vålerenga - Odd	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Norwegian Eliteserien
24.04.22	Vålerenga - Jerv	1:0
Club Friendly
05.06.20	Vålerenga - Jerv	1:2

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