Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Sultan Ibrahim Stadium (Johor Bahru)

Referee: Evans S. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI
Croatia	SportKlub 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Pakistan	Tapmad
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1
Vietnam	TV 360
International	Onefootball, Sport 1 Baltic


	Johor Darul Takzim		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.55	3.4	2.6
	2.58	3.15	2.62
	2.57	3.35	2.85
	2.53	3.42	2.66	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.75
	2.5	3.37	2.81	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.76)	3.3 ↑ (3.24)	2.72 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Johor Darul Takzim
37.1%

Draw
28.4%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
34.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.8%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

30.2%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Johor Darul Takzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Johor Darul Takzim than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	62.5%	12.5%

Johor Darul Takzim - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Johor will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Johor (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Johor (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Zubiaurre A. (G) 23. Israfilov E. 5. Antonio Cristian 18. Nene 36. Parra R. 28. Mendez N. 30. Insa N. (C) 24. Arribas O. 95. Marcos Guilherme 25. Figueiredo J. 11. Jairo	1. Osako K. (G) 33. Shiotani T. 4. Araki H. 37. Kim Ju-Sung 15. Nakano S. 6. Kawabe H. (C) 88. Matsumoto T. 16. Shichi T. 9. Germain R. 40. Ohara M. 29. Suzuki A.
Substitutes
1. Abad Amat C. (G) 47. Aketxe A. 9. Bergson 4. Fazail A. 16. Hazmi S. (G) 88. Hidalgo M. 17. Irazabal J. 14. Lowry S. 13. Park J. 33. Silva J. 20. Teto A. 97. Yago Cesar	13. Arai N. 23. Ayukawa S. 25. Chajima Y. 51. Kato M. 17. Kinoshita K. 45. Kobayashi S. 35. Nakajima Y. 39. Nakamura S. 99. Ouchi I. (G) 19. Sasaki S. 18. Suga D. 21. Tanaka Y. (G)
Coaches
Xisco	Gaul B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Kim Ju-Sung 🟨,
25', Insa N. ↓, Aketxe A. ↑,
26', Kim Ju-Sung 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Ohara M. ↓, Arai N. ↑,
51', Jairo ↓, Bergson ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Aketxe A. ⚽, Mendez N. (A),
59', Antonio Cristian 🟨,
60', Suzuki A. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
60', Germain R. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Bergson ⚽,
64', Bergson 🟨,
73', Kawabe H. ↓, Nakamura S. ↑,
84', Figueiredo J. ↓, Yago Cesar ↑,
84', Aketxe A. ↓, Hidalgo M. ↑,
85', 3 - 0, Marcos Guilherme ⚽, Arribas O. (A),
86', 3 - 1, Nene (Own goal),
90+3', Shiotani T. ↓, Suga D. ↑,
90+4', Arribas O. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Now, both teams are in good form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Johor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of AFC Champions League for now

Johor DT: 0.9%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Johor Darul Takzim FC
Malaysian Super League
28.02.26	Penang - Johor Darul Takzim	0:4 ✺
22.02.26	Sabah FA - Johor Darul Takzim	1:6 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	Johor Darul Takzim - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
Malaysian Cup
13.02.26	Johor Darul Takzim - Melaka	5:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
10.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Johor Darul Takzim	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWWL
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
27.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	FC Seoul - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League
10.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Johor Darul Takzim	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
10.02.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Johor Darul Takzim	2:1

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