Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Sultan Ibrahim Stadium (Johor Bahru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 3
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Sports18 3, Vision+
Indonesia	MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kyrgyzstan	KTRK Sports
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go, Sooka
Montenegro	Sportklub 3
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 3
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Johor Darul Takzim		Ulsan HD

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.5	3
	2	3.6	3.4
	2.21	3.52	3.26
	2.14	3.61	3.11	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3
	2.18	3.6	3.17	Watch
	2	3.6	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.92)	3.55 ↓ (3.65)	3.19 ↓ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Johor Darul Takzim
44.2%

Draw
26.4%

Ulsan HD
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

25.4%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

24.6%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Johor Darul Takzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Ulsan HD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Johor Darul Takzim than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Johor Darul Takzim, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	10%	30%

Johor Darul Takzim - Ulsan HD Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Johor will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Ulsan will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Johor: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Zubiaurre A. (G) 13. Park J. 23. Israfilov E. 14. Lowry S. 24. Arribas O. 18. Undabarrena I. 30. Insa N. (C) 11. Murilo 42. Aiman A. 20. Muniz J. 99. Obregon J.	21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 73. Yun Il-Lok 4. Kim Kee-Hee (C) 19. Kim Young-Gwon 17. Ludwigson G. 6. Bojanic D. 8. Lee Gyu-Seong 95. Matheus Sales 31. Esaka A. 10. Kim Min-Woo 18. Joo Min-Kyu
Substitutes
5. Amat J. 15. Baharudin F. 9. Bergson 22. Corbin-Ong L. 2. Davies M. 21. Faiz N. 4. Fazail A. 16. Hazmi S. (G) 37. Heberty 33. Jese 19. Morales R. 3. Saad S.	9. Arabidze G. 20. Hwang Seok-Ho 1. Jo Su-Huk (G) 33. Kang Min-Woo 26. Kim Min-Jun 27. Lee Chung-Yong 5. Lim Jong-Eun 37. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G)
Coaches
Bidoglio H.	Kim P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Aiman A. ⚽,
22', Matheus Sales ↓, Lee Chung-Yong ↑,
35', Kim Young-Gwon ↓, Hwang Seok-Ho ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kim Min-Woo ↓, Lim Jong-Eun ↑,
53', Obregon J. ↓, Bergson ↑,
54', Hwang Seok-Ho 🟨,
67', 2 - 0, Arribas O. ⚽, Aiman A. (A),
71', Lee Gyu-Seong ↓, Kim Min-Jun ↑,
72', Yun Il-Lok ↓, Arabidze G. ↑,
81', Muniz J. ↓, Heberty ↑,
82', Lim Jong-Eun 🟨,
87', Insa N. ↓, Fazail A. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Bergson ⚽, Fazail A. (A),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 12).

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Johor will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Johor won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.8:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Johor won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Johor Darul Takzim FC
Malaysian Super League
01.11.24	Negeri Sembilan - Johor Darul Takzim	0:4 ✺
27.10.24	Selangor FA - Johor Darul Takzim	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Gwangju - Johor Darul Takzim	3:1 ✺
01.10.24	Johor Darul Takzim - Shanghai Shenhua	3:0 ✺
Malaysian Super League
27.09.24	Johor Darul Takzim - Kuching City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWW
- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
01.11.24	Ulsan HD - Gangwon	2:1 ✺
27.10.24	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
23.10.24	Ulsan HD - Vissel Kobe	0:2 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
19.10.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	0:0 ✺
06.10.24	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
07.11.23	Johor Darul Takzim - Ulsan HD	2:1
24.10.23	Ulsan HD - Johor Darul Takzim	3:1
30.04.22	Johor Darul Takzim - Ulsan HD	2:1
18.04.22	Ulsan HD - Johor Darul Takzim	1:2

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