Match Info

K League 1 - Round 12

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Gimcheon Stadium (Gimcheon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
South-korea	Coupang Play, ENA Sports
World	K League TV


	Gimcheon Sangmu		Ulsan HD

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.6	Watch
	2.58	3.25	2.52
	3.07	3.49	2.41
	2.98	3.32	2.34	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.5
	2.61	3.35	2.56	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.63)	3.29 ↑ (3.1)	2.47 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimcheon Sangmu
34.4%

Draw
28.1%

Ulsan HD
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

28.4%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

28.5%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimcheon Sangmu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Ulsan HD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimcheon Sangmu than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Gimcheon Sangmu will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Ulsan will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Moon Hyeon-Ho (G) 20. Lee Chan-Wook 15. Lim Dug-Keun 26. Lee Jung-Taek (C) 42. Hong Si-Hoo 14. Park Se-Jin 56. Lee K. 3. Park Cheol-Woo 7. Go Jae-Hyeon 9. Lee G. 17. Kim Joo-Chan	21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 96. Choi Seok-Hyun 4. Seo Myung-Guan 28. Lee Jae-Ik 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 66. Trojak M. 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong (C) 6. Bojanic D. 17. Kang Sang-Woo 9. Marcao
Substitutes
1. Baek Jong-beom (G) 45. Byeon Jun-Soo 21. Kim In-Gyun 11. Kim Tae-Hwan 47. Lee Sang-Heon 6. Lee Soo-Bin 33. Park Jin-Seong 55. Park T. 54. Yoon Jae-Seok	72. Baek In-Woo 15. Jung Seung-Hyun 19. Kim Young-Gwon 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 8. Lee H. 91. Michel B. 13. Ryu Seong-Min (G) 77. Sim Sang-Min 99. Yago Cariello
Coaches
Joo S.	Kim Hyun-seok

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Bojanic D. ↓, Lee Gyu-Seong ↑,
40', 0 - 1, Marcao ⚽, Kang Sang-Woo (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Kim Joo-Chan ↓, Lee Sang-Heon ↑,
59', Lee K. ↓, Park T. ↑,
59', Park Se-Jin ↓, Kim In-Gyun ↑,
60', Marcao ↓, Yago Cariello ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Yago Cariello ⚽, Seo Myung-Guan (A),
75', 1 - 2, Lee G. ⚽, Lee Sang-Heon (A),
78', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Lee H. ↑,
78', Trojak M. ↓, Kim Young-Gwon ↑,
78', Kang Sang-Woo ↓, Michel B. ↑,
82', Lee Jung-Taek ↓, Byeon Jun-Soo ↑,
85', Hong Si-Hoo ↓, Kim Tae-Hwan ↑,
90+6', Lee G. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu won 2.

Gimcheon Sangmu has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ulsan is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Ulsan has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:42. (average 1.2:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimcheon Sangmu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.2:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47
10	Gimcheon Sangmu ✔	31	5	18	8	30:37	-7	33

Last Results with these Odds

Gimcheon Sangmu - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 33.42%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Ulsan HD - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 38.22%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
02.05.26	FC Seoul - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:3 ✺
25.04.26	Bucheon - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gangwon	0:3 ✺
18.04.26	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Anyang	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WWLTT
- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
02.05.26	Ulsan HD - Pohang Steelers	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	Ulsan HD - Daejeon Citizen	1:4 ✺
22.04.26	Anyang - Ulsan HD	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Ulsan HD - Gwangju	5:1 ✺
15.04.26	Ulsan HD - FC Seoul	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
22.03.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0
05.10.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	3:0
24.05.25	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:2
27.04.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	2:0
19.10.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	0:0
06.10.24	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1
12.05.24	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:2

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