Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 3

Date: 22 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: Gwangju Football Stadium (Gwangju)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, beIN Sports MENA AFC 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 1, SportKlub
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go
Montenegro	SportKlub 1, SportKlub
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 1, SportKlub 2
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport, TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-korea	Tving
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball app, Sport 1 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Gwangju		Johor Darul Takzim

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.4	3.5	2.7
	2.45	3.4	2.7
	2.52	3.4	2.83
	2.44	3.42	2.75	Watch
	2.38	3.4	2.62	Watch
	2.49	3.38	2.79	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.2)	3.41 ↓ (3.55)	2.73 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gwangju
38.3%

Draw
27.4%

Johor Darul Takzim
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

26%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

25.8%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gwangju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Johor Darul Takzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gwangju than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Johor Darul Takzim than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	5.3%	31.6%

Gwangju - Johor Darul Takzim Predictions

Users Predictions: Gwangju will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kim Kyung-Min (G) 2. Cho Sung-Gwon 15. Byeon Jun-Soo 23. Kim Kyeong-Jae 3. Lee Min-Ki (C) 7. Asani J. 55. Park Tae-Jun 14. Jeong Ho-Yeon 77. Oh Hoo-Sung 40. Shin Chang-Moo 20. Lee G.	58. Zubiaurre A. (G) 13. Park J. 23. Israfilov E. 15. Baharudin F. 24. Arribas O. 18. Undabarrena I. 30. Insa N. (C) 11. Murilo 42. Aiman A. 20. Muniz J. 99. Obregon J.
Substitutes
6. Ahn Young-Kyu 30. Choi Kyoung-Rok 18. Heo Yool 17. Jeong Ji-Yong 47. Kim Han-Gil 27. Kim Jin-Ho 8. Lee Eu-Ddeum 10. Lee Heui-Kyun 24. Lee K. 22. Lee Sang-Gi 88. Moon Min-seo 31. Roh Hee-Dong (G)	1. Abad Amat C. (G) 9. Bergson 22. Corbin-Ong L. 2. Davies M. 21. Faiz N. 36. Gunalan P. 16. Hazmi S. (G) 37. Heberty 33. Jese 19. Morales R. 3. Saad S. 26. Sumareh M.
Coaches
Lee Jung-Hyo	Bidoglio H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Asani J. ⚽, Oh Hoo-Sung (A),
6', 2 - 0, Asani J. ⚽,
28', 2 - 1, Baharudin F. ⚽, Muniz J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Cho Sung-Gwon ↓, Kim Jin-Ho ↑,
46', Lee G. ↓, Heo Yool ↑,
55', Zubiaurre A. 🟨,
57', Oh Hoo-Sung ↓, Lee Heui-Kyun ↑,
58', Shin Chang-Moo ↓, Choi Kyoung-Rok ↑,
60', Muniz J. 🟨,
60', Lee Heui-Kyun 🟨,
72', Aiman A. 🟨,
78', Murilo ↓, Bergson ↑,
87', Obregon J. ↓, Jese ↑,
87', Muniz J. ↓, Heberty ↑,
88', 3 - 1, Park J. (Own goal),
90+3', Park Tae-Jun ↓, Lee K. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Gwangju is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Johor is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Gwangju could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Gwangju will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Gwangju - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.93%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gwangju FC
South Korean K-League 1
18.10.24	Gwangju - Daegu	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Gwangju - FC Seoul	3:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
01.10.24	Kawasaki Frontale - Gwangju	0:1 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
28.09.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Gwangju	2:0 ✺
22.09.24	Gwangju - Jeju	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWWLL
- Johor Darul Takzim FC
AFC Champions League
01.10.24	Johor Darul Takzim - Shanghai Shenhua	3:0 ✺
Malaysian Super League
27.09.24	Johor Darul Takzim - Kuching City	2:1 ✺
22.09.24	Kelantan The Real Warriors - Johor Darul Takzim	1:6 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.09.24	Shanghai Port - Johor Darul Takzim	2:2 ✺
Malaysian Super League
12.09.24	Johor Darul Takzim - Penang	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTW

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