Match Info

K League 1 - Round 26

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium (Ulsan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Russia	TV Start Triumph
South-korea	Coupang Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	K League TV


	Ulsan HD		Gimcheon Sangmu

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3	Watch
	2.25	3.40	2.95
	2.15	3.3	3
	2.27	3.53	3.25
	2.22	3.51	3.04	Watch
	2.2	3.45	3.15
	2.2	3.42	3.28	Watch
	2.19	3.4	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.73)	3.41 ↓ (3.5)	3.09 ↓ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ulsan HD
42.3%

Draw
27.4%

Gimcheon Sangmu
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.4%

25.4%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.7%

24.5%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulsan HD has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulsan HD's form might have worsened.

Gimcheon Sangmu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gimcheon Sangmu's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan HD than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ulsan HD, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimcheon Sangmu than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gimcheon Sangmu, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ulsan will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Gimcheon Sangmu will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gimcheon Sangmu: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimcheon Sangmu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Gimcheon Sangmu (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (1.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Gimcheon Sangmu (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimcheon Sangmu (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Jo Hyeon-Woo (G) 26. Cho Hyun-Taek 15. Jung Seung-Hyun (C) 4. Seo Myung-Guan 96. Choi Seok-Hyun 6. Bojanic D. 10. Lee Dong-Gyeong 55. Oude Kotte T. 14. Lee Jin-Hyun 99. Yago Cariello 8. Lee H.	1. Baek Jong-beom (G) 11. Kim Tae-Hwan 45. Byeon Jun-Soo 26. Lee Jung-Taek (C) 3. Park Cheol-Woo 56. Lee K. 55. Park T. 7. Go Jae-Hyeon 14. Park Se-Jin 48. Hong Yun-Sang 9. Lee G.
Substitutes
31. Hwang Byeong-Keun (G) 33. Jang Si-Young 20. Jeong Jae-sang 17. Kang Sang-Woo 19. Kim Young-Gwon 24. Lee Gyu-Seong 91. Michel B. 16. Park Woo-jin 66. Trojak M.	42. Hong Si-Hoo 10. Jeon Byung-Kwan 57. Jung Jae-Min 21. Kim In-Gyun 8. Kim Yi-Seok 47. Lee Sang-Heon 6. Lee Soo-Bin 15. Lim Dug-Keun 41. Park M. (G)
Coaches
Kim Hyun-seok	Joo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Lee G. ⚽, Hong Yun-Sang (A),
43', Park T. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Yago Cariello ⚽,
45+2', Lee Jung-Taek 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Park T. ↓, Kim Yi-Seok ↑,
46', Park Se-Jin ↓, Lee Sang-Heon ↑,
56', Yago Cariello (Penalty Awarded),
58', Lee H. ↓, Kang Sang-Woo ↑,
60', Go Jae-Hyeon ↓, Jeon Byung-Kwan ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Kang Sang-Woo ⚽, Lee Dong-Gyeong (A),
68', Hong Yun-Sang ↓, Kim In-Gyun ↑,
71', Bojanic D. ↓, Lee Gyu-Seong ↑,
71', Lee Jin-Hyun ↓, Jang Si-Young ↑,
75', 3 - 1, Yago Cariello ⚽, Oude Kotte T. (A),
86', Lee G. ↓, Jung Jae-Min ↑,
90', Yago Cariello ↓, Jeong Jae-sang ↑,
90', Seo Myung-Guan ↓, Kim Young-Gwon ↑,
90', Lee Dong-Gyeong ↓, Michel B. ↑,
90+2', Lee K. ↓, Lim Dug-Keun ↑,
90+4', Jeong Jae-sang 🟨,
90+12', Kang Sang-Woo (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1 (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone K League 1 (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ulsan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ulsan could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ulsan won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 44:22. (average 2.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ulsan won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 26:10. (average 2.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Ulsan HD	31	14	5	12	48:44	4	47
10	Gimcheon Sangmu ✔	31	5	18	8	30:37	-7	33

Last Results with these Odds

Ulsan HD - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 51.45%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ulsan HD
South Korean K-League 1
26.08.26	Daejeon Citizen - Ulsan HD	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Ulsan HD	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Ulsan HD - Gangwon	2:3 ✺
08.08.26	Pohang Steelers - Ulsan HD	0:2 ✺
02.08.26	Ulsan HD - Anyang	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLWW
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC
South Korean K-League 1
25.08.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Jeju - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0 ✺
South Korean Cup
19.08.26	Gimpo - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1 ✺
South Korean K-League 1
16.08.26	Incheon United - Gimcheon Sangmu	1:1 ✺
08.08.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - FC Seoul	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TTLTT

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 1
05.05.26	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	1:2
22.03.26	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0
05.10.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	3:0
24.05.25	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	3:2
27.04.25	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	2:0
19.10.24	Gimcheon Sangmu - Ulsan HD	0:0
06.10.24	Ulsan HD - Gimcheon Sangmu	2:1

Upcoming Matches