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Current Win Probability
Jong Sparta Rotterdam 35.3%
Draw 24.1%
Excelsior Maassluis 40.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.7%
23.2%
35.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.9%
22.6%
34.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Jong Sparta Rotterdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong Sparta Rotterdam's form might have worsened.
Excelsior Maassluis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Excelsior Maassluis's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jong Sparta Rotterdam, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excelsior Maassluis than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Excelsior Maassluis, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Jong Sparta Rotterdam - Excelsior Maassluis Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Kuiper P. (G) 5. Mulumba G. 4. van Zijl O. 3. Borrie T. 2. Henry A. (C) 10. el Meftahi Y. 6. Sandvliet N. 8. Guit V. 7. Arcos G. 9. Visser A. 11. Nieuwenhuijs L.
16. El Fakiri K. (G) 2. Tureaij C. 8. Udenhout J. 3. Ringeling K. (C) 6. van Eerden J. 24. Lopes Varela D. 10. Bakour M. 30. Hamd Y. 14. Verbont J. 27. Plank D. 11. Tavares Q.
Substitutes
14. Bogerd J. 16. Bynoe J. 12. Esser J. 17. Hanzen D. 19. Hoeve Q. 18. Oetoehganal L. 20. Suur R. (G)
26. Bronder S. 4. Heuvelman D. 21. Nagtegaal N. 17. Slagveer D. 1. Van der Kleij T. (G) 19. van der Velden S. 9. Wennekers B.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Bakour M. ⚽, Lopes Varela D. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Sandvliet N. ↓, Oetoehganal L. ↑,
46', Nieuwenhuijs L. ↓, Hoeve Q. ↑,
54', Oetoehganal L. 🟨,
68', 0 - 2, Plank D. ⚽, van Eerden J. (A),
75', Mulumba G. ↓, Esser J. ↑,
75', van Zijl O. ↓, Hanzen D. ↑,
77', Verbont J. ↓, Slagveer D. ↑,
77', Lopes Varela D. ↓, Heuvelman D. ↑,
77', Hamd Y. ↓, Nagtegaal N. ↑,
84', 0 - 3, Tavares Q. ⚽, Heuvelman D. (A),
84', Bakour M. ↓, Wennekers B. ↑,
88', Plank D. ↓, van der Velden S. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 4, Tavares Q. ⚽, Nagtegaal N. (A),
Preview
This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 16 in the zone Tweede Divisie (Relegation)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong Sparta won 4.
Jong Sparta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Excelsior Maassluis is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins โ 1).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Jong Sparta won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:19. (average 1.7:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Jong Sparta won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:8. (average 1.9:1.1).
Watch
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Kuiper P. (G) 
Arcos G. 
Hoeve Q. 
