The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Juticalpa 14.4%
Draw 24.6%
CD Marathón 61%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
21.4%
26.2%
52.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
20.7%
25.3%
54.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Juticalpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Juticalpa's form might have worsened.
CD Marathón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting CD Marathón's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juticalpa than the current prediction. (+6.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juticalpa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-6.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for CD Marathón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Juticalpa - CD Marathón Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
35. Facusse E. (G) 24. Barrios O. 10. Canales M. 12. Casildo L. 20. Gonzalez R. 14. Kelly K. 2. Nunez M. 17. Padilla J. 27. Quaye W. 9. Rochez J. 45. Velasquez J.
1. Rougier J. (G) 16. Agurcia S. 22. Argueta C. 14. Arriaga Chavez J. A. 2. Figueroa H. 11. Messiniti N. 72. Moreno Y. 29. Perez C. 10. Ramirez D. 4. Rivera J. 8. Sorto Caballero T. A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Barrios O. (Own goal),
7', Sacaza C. 🟨,
18', 1 - 1, Sacaza C. ⚽,
24', 1 - 2, Argueta C. ⚽,
38', 2 - 2, Padilla J. ⚽,
44', Barrios O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gaboriell N. ↓, Kelly K. ↑,
46', Barrios O. ↓, Matute K. ↑,
48', Agurcia S. 🟨,
51', Velasquez J. 🟨,
65', Perez C. ↓, Mejia Y. ↑,
65', Argueta C. ↓, Elis A. ↑,
67', Rochez C. ↓, Canales M. ↑,
69', Rochez J. ↓, Delgadillo Y. ↑,
70', Kelly K. 🟨,
75', Ramirez D. 🟥,
76', Figueroa H. 🟨,
78', Padilla J. ↓, Monico D. ↑,
81', Aguilera J. 🟨,
85', 3 - 2, Velasquez J. ⚽,
88', Moreno Y. 🟨,
88', 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 12th in the Liga Nacional (Relegation) and 1st in the Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Apertura ~ PlayoffsSemi~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juticalpa won 0.
Recent results have been tough for Juticalpa (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Marathón shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Juticalpa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
The betting markets point to Marathón as the clear and undisputed favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Juticalpa has recorded 3 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:45 (averaging 1.1:2.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Juticalpa against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, with 9:12 goals (averaging 0.9:1.2 per game).
Honduras
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Facusse E. (G) 
Casildo L. 
Gonzalez R. 
Messiniti N. 
Moreno Y. 
Rivera J. 
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