The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Juticalpa 36.3%
Draw 27.6%
Choloma 36.2%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
42.8%
27.4%
29.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.9%
25.5%
32%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Juticalpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Juticalpa's form might have worsened.
Choloma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Choloma's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juticalpa than the current prediction. (+3.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Choloma than the current prediction. (-4.2%)
Juticalpa - Choloma Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
35. Facusse E. (G) 24. Barrios O. 39. Centeno J. 50. Galeas J. 20. Gonzalez R. (C) 2. Nunez M. 27. Quaye W. 9. Rochez J. 30. Sacaza C. 45. Velasquez J.
24. Pineda J. (C) 11. Alvarado 7. Arias I. 4. Calderon A. 10. Canales J. 21. Capeluto J. 23. Castillo H. 9. Ferreira L. 29. Florez E. 25. Obed Mejia Machado G. 18. Quejada J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Alvarado 🟨,
21', Ferreira L. 🟨,
27', Rochez J. 🟨,
28', Quejada J. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Quejada J. ⚽,
45+2', Castillo H. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Obed Mejia Machado G. ↓, Zamora O. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Zamora O. ⚽,
59', Nunez M. ↓, Delgadillo Y. ↑,
65', Altamirano C. ↓, Rochez C. ↑,
65', Arias I. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
70', 1 - 2, Delgadillo Y. ⚽,
71', Canales J. ↓, Barrios J. ↑,
79', Velasquez J. ↓, Canales M. ↑,
90+4', Rochez C. 🟨,
Preview
A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 12th in the Liga Nacional (Relegation) and 11th).
Juticalpa has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Choloma has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Juticalpa could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Juticalpa has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:5 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Juticalpa against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).
Honduras
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Facusse E. (G) 
Gonzalez R. (C) 
Capeluto J. 
Castillo H. 
Florez E. 
Quejada J. 
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