Match Info

Liga Nacional - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Emilio Williams Agasse (Choluteca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Lobos UPNFM		Choloma

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.40	3.50
	1.82	3.3	3.65
	1.88	3.35	3.52
	1.93	3.49	3.75	Watch
	1.84	3.15	3.45
	1.83	3.38	3.86
	1.84	3.35	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.6)	3.35 ↓ (3.5)	3.63 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lobos UPNFM
48.4%

Draw
26.8%

Choloma
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.5%

23.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lobos UPNFM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lobos UPNFM's form might have worsened.

Choloma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Choloma's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lobos UPNFM than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lobos UPNFM, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Choloma than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Choloma, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lobos UPNFM - Choloma Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Guity A. (G) 16. Carter D. 24. Elvir O. 11. Elvir S. 15. Glavocic J. 10. Hinestroza Y. 20. Lopez E. 6. Ponce J. 3. Rodas Andrino G. J. (C) 2. Suazo D. 5. Zuniga A.	24. Pineda J. (G) 2. Alvarez K. 28. Barrios J. (C) 4. Calderon A. 10. Canales J. 23. Castillo H. 27. Fajardo A. 29. Florez E. 14. Madrid C. 18. Quejada J. 13. Villatoro A.
Substitutes
1. Banegas G. (G) 23. Castrillo J. 7. Hurtado L. 19. Lagos D. 26. Lopez B. 77. Mejia C. 8. Nunez J. 17. Rodas D. 13. Rodriguez M.	7. Arias I. 15. Castillo J. 20. Lindo M. . Mateo D. 8. Nunez J. 25. Obed Mejia Machado G. 40. Ramirez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Suazo D. ⚽,
16', Lopez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 in the zone Liga Nacional (Relegation) and 10).

Lobos UPNFM is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Choloma is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Choloma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Lobos UPNFM has had a series of away games.

In this match, Lobos UPNFM is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Lobos UPNFM won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1.3:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lobos UPNFM won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	UPNFM	8	2	2	4	7:12	-5	8
10	Choloma	8	2	1	5	6:8	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lobos UPNFM
Honduras Liga Nacional
06.09.26	Real España - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
28.08.26	Juticalpa - Lobos UPNFM	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	Motagua - Lobos UPNFM	4:1 ✺
15.08.26	Lobos UPNFM - Estrella Roja de Danlí	2:2 ✺
02.08.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Lobos UPNFM	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL
- CD Choloma
Honduras Liga Nacional
04.09.26	Choloma - Olancho	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Real España - Choloma	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Choloma - Platense	2:0 ✺
16.08.26	Choloma - CD Marathón	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Génesis PN - Choloma	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
20.03.26	Lobos UPNFM - Choloma	1:2
29.01.26	Choloma - Lobos UPNFM	1:1
14.10.25	Choloma - Lobos UPNFM	5:1
03.08.25	Lobos UPNFM - Choloma	2:2

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