Match Info

Esiliiga - Relegation - Final

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Heino Lipp Stadium (Johvi)


	Jõhvi Phoenix		FC Tallinn

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.55	4.25	1.68	Watch
	3.3	4	1.68
	3.96	4.33	1.62
	3.8	4.5	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↓ (3.96)	4.27 ↓ (4.33)	1.65 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jõhvi Phoenix
24.5%

Draw
21%

FC Tallinn
54.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.9%

21%

56.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

20.2%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jõhvi Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

FC Tallinn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jõhvi Phoenix than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FC Tallinn than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Jõhvi Phoenix - FC Tallinn Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gusev V. (C) 11. Shashkov I. 3. Kruglov E. 2. Krupski A. 28. Friesen V. 24. Miskov M. 99. Velikanov V. 9. Tsvibelberg G. 33. Tikhomirov A. 71. Minajev M. 20. Stoyanov B.	16. Bolgov S. (G) 77. Vynnychuk A. 30. Tsurilkin V. (C) 17. Avilov V. 72. Dzemesjuk M. 10. Dmitrijev A. 21. Tinyakov M. 28. Tsendei S. 39. Istsenko V. 9. Kulik V. 20. Arhipov L.
Substitutes
66. Globenko A. (G) 5. Jakovlev M. 27. Manuskin A. 10. Salmus A.	4. Mohhov I. 18. Plotnikov V. 22. Salamatov N. 29. Toropov A. 25. Usachev M. (G) 27. Ussatsov I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Istsenko V. 🟨,
45+1', 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
49', 1 - 0, Dzemesjuk M. (Own goal),
67', 1 - 1, Kulik V. ⚽,
69', 2 - 1, Stoyanov B. ⚽,
82', 🟨,
85', 2 - 2, Arhipov L. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Jõhvi Phoenix has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

FC Tallinn has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, FC Tallinn is a strong favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jõhvi FC Phoenix
Estonian Esiliiga B
09.11.25	Paide U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Kuressaare U21	4:0 ✺
22.10.25	Nõmme United U21 - Jõhvi Phoenix	3:1 ✺
19.10.25	Maardu Linnameeskond - Jõhvi Phoenix	2:0 ✺
08.10.25	Jõhvi Phoenix - Narva Trans U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLW
- FC Tallinn
Estonian Esiliiga
09.11.25	Tammeka U21 - FC Tallinn	5:2 ✺
02.11.25	FC Tallinn - Viimsi JK	1:2 ✺
Estonian Cup
30.10.25	Narva Trans - FC Tallinn	6:0 ✺
Estonian Esiliiga
27.10.25	Flora U21 - FC Tallinn	2:4 ✺
23.10.25	FC Tallinn - Nõmme United	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LLLWL

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