Match Info

Ykkosliiga

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Arto Tolsa Areena (Kotka)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	KTP Kotka		PK-35 Vantaa

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.35	Watch
	1.77	3.67	4.69
	1.75	3.67	4.52	Watch
	1.74	3.6	4.6
	1.7	3.54	4.37	Watch
	1.71	3.4	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.1)	3.56 ↑ (3.21)	4.44 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

KTP Kotka
53.2%

Draw
25.9%

PK-35 Vantaa
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

28.9%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

29.1%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in KTP Kotka's performance.

PK-35 Vantaa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and PK-35 Vantaa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with KTP Kotka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for PK-35 Vantaa than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that PK-35 Vantaa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

KTP Kotka - PK 35 Vantaa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. KTP (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: KTP Kotka will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Zhuk M. (G) 3. Agyei D. 4. Chibuzor C. 8. Coker M. 10. Forsell P. 21. Hanninen O. 7. Makela J. (C) 17. Manneh F. 26. Paavola M. 13. Tahmbi N. 20. Tulehmo A.	1. Ramula A. (G) 7. Diniz P. 3. Forsstrom A. 14. Kawakita E. 6. Nakanishi J. 88. Pikkuhookana J. 18. Pitkala E. 21. Rasanen K. (C) 2. Sipi R. 15. Tapani J. 23. Uchiyama S.
Substitutes
18. Eloluoto O. 11. Haapalainen R. 2. Huttunen O. 25. Leikas J. (G) 19. Polat R. 30. Puhakainen L. 29. Ruohio A. 14. Sunday G.	27. Ahmed-Nur A. 34. Andberg T. 8. Costa J. 16. Jokiniemi N. 25. Kivela A. (G) 22. Lokake L. 9. Sadik I. 10. Salmensuu O. 19. Tolonen M.
Coaches
Pasoja J.	Santos T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Coker M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kawakita E. ↓, Ahmed-Nur A. ↑,
54', Tulehmo A. ↓, Polat R. ↑,
60', 0 - 1, Pitkala E. ⚽,
66', Tapani J. ↓, Lokake L. ↑,
68', Hanninen O. 🟨,
73', Agyei D. ↓, Puhakainen L. ↑,
73', Hanninen O. ↓, Eloluoto O. ↑,
76', Pikkuhookana J. ↓, Andberg T. ↑,
83', Pitkala E. ↓, Costa J. ↑,
83', Diniz P. ↓, Tolonen M. ↑,
88', Uchiyama S. 🟨,
90+1', Zhuk M. 🟨,
90+4', Paavola M. 🟨,
90+6', Ahmed-Nur A. 🟨,
90+7', Lokake L. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Promotion: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, KTP won 4.

KTP is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

PK-35 is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

PK-35 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, KTP has had a series of home games.

In this match, KTP is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, KTP won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:18. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, KTP won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	KTP ✔	25	18	4	3	45:22	23	58
2	PK-35	25	14	7	4	41:18	23	49

Last Results with these Odds

KTP Kotka - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 44.17%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KTP Kotka
Finnish Ykkosliiga
10.07.26	KTP Kotka - JäPS	4:1 ✺
03.07.26	KTP Kotka - JIPPO	3:3 ✺
Finnish Ykkoscup
27.06.26	Haka - KTP Kotka	0:2 ✺
Finnish Ykkosliiga
12.06.26	KTP Kotka - Ekenäs	5:1 ✺
08.06.26	KTP Kotka - Haka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWWL
- PK-35 Vantaa
Finnish Ykkosliiga
10.07.26	PK-35 Vantaa - KaPa	3:1 ✺
04.07.26	Ekenäs - PK-35 Vantaa	0:3 ✺
26.06.26	PK-35 Vantaa - Mikkelin Palloilijat	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	JäPS - PK-35 Vantaa	0:5 ✺
31.05.26	PK-35 Vantaa - Klubi 04	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Ykkosliiga
24.04.26	PK-35 Vantaa - KTP Kotka	0:1
12.08.24	KTP Kotka - PK-35 Vantaa	2:1
29.06.24	KTP Kotka - PK-35 Vantaa	1:0
28.04.24	PK-35 Vantaa - KTP Kotka	1:5
Finnish Ykkoscup
02.03.24	KTP Kotka - PK-35 Vantaa	2:4
Finnish Ykkonen
03.09.22	PK-35 Vantaa - KTP Kotka	0:1
22.06.22	KTP Kotka - PK-35 Vantaa	4:0

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