Match Info

Russian Cup - Regions Path - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 August 2026, Wednesday


	Kaluga		Iskra Smolensk

	1	X	2
	1.28	4.30	11.60	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.38)	4.3 ↓ (5.1)	11.6 ↑ (6.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kaluga
71%

Draw
21.1%

Iskra Smolensk
7.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

18.3%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

14%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kaluga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Iskra Smolensk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Iskra Smolensk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaluga than the current prediction. (-19.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kaluga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iskra Smolensk than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Iskra Smolensk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Kaluga - Iskra Smolensk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Bakharev G. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Pervakov N. ⚽,
21', 3 - 0, Bakharev G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
70', 4 - 0, Suchanov I. ⚽,
84', 5 - 0, Klishchenko D. ⚽,

Preview

Kaluga has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Iskra is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Kaluga is the obvious favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kaluga
Russian FNL 2 Division A Gold
08.08.26	Kaluga - Rodina Moscow 2	0:0 ✺
02.08.26	Dynamo Kirov - Kaluga	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	Kaluga - Sibir Novosibirsk	0:1 ✺
19.07.26	Sokol Saratov - Kaluga	1:1 ✺
13.06.26	Kaluga - Mashuk-KMV Pyatigorsk	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TLLTW
- Iskra Smolensk
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 2
08.08.26	Kosmos Dolgoprudny - Iskra Smolensk	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Iskra Smolensk - Dinamo Saint Petersburg	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Cherepovets - Iskra Smolensk	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Iskra Smolensk - Volga Tver	2:4 ✺
21.06.26	Murom - Iskra Smolensk	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTLLL

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