Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 6 January 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Kariobangi Sharks		Gor Mahia

	1	X	2
	3.35	2.82	2.18
	3.26	2.77	2.35	Watch
	3.5	2.63	2.15
	3.47	2.79	2.2
	3.33	2.9	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↓ (4.05)	2.78 ↓ (2.94)	2.2 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kariobangi Sharks
26.7%

Draw
32.4%

Gor Mahia
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

31.1%

46.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

29.3%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kariobangi Sharks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Gor Mahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gor Mahia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kariobangi Sharks than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kariobangi Sharks that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gor Mahia than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gor Mahia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Gor Mahia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Omondi B. S. ⚽,
45+4', 0 - 2, Ebenezer A. B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
57', 1 - 2, ⚽,
83', 1 - 3, ⚽,
87', 1 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Super League and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kariobangi Sharks won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Gor Mahia is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Kariobangi Sharks won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 14:32. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Kariobangi Sharks won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:19. (average 1:1.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Gor Mahia	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Last Results with these Odds

Gor Mahia - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 46.25%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kariobangi Sharks
Kenyan Premier League
22.12.25	Sofapaka - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
18.12.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Bidco United	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Mara Sugar - Kariobangi Sharks	2:0 ✺
06.12.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Police FC	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Muranga Seal - Kariobangi Sharks	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWLLT
- Gor Mahia
Kenyan Premier League
21.12.25	Nairobi United - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
17.12.25	Gor Mahia - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Bandari - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards	0:1 ✺
25.11.25	Gor Mahia - APS Bomet	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan FKF Cup
01.05.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia	0:2
Kenyan Premier League
05.03.25	Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia	1:3
22.12.24	Gor Mahia - Kariobangi Sharks	1:0
13.01.24	Gor Mahia - Kariobangi Sharks	1:0
03.12.23	Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia	1:2
09.04.23	Gor Mahia - Kariobangi Sharks	2:0
18.12.22	Kariobangi Sharks - Gor Mahia	1:1

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