Match Info

Premier League - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Nairobi United		Gor Mahia

	1	X	2
	3.8	2.88	1.98
	4.19	2.89	1.97	Watch
	4.2	2.75	1.91
	4.09	2.82	1.99
	4.5	2.83	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↓ (4.6)	2.83 ↓ (2.95)	1.94 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nairobi United
21.7%

Draw
31.8%

Gor Mahia
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.8%

30.9%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

30.1%

50.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nairobi United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Gor Mahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gor Mahia than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Nairobi United - Gor Mahia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Ebenezer A. B. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )).

Recent form of Nairobi United has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Gor Mahia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Gor Mahia has had a series of home games.

In this match, Gor Mahia is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nairobi United won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Gor Mahia - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.28%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nairobi United
Kenyan Premier League
17.12.25	Tusker - Nairobi United	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Nairobi United - Muranga Seal	1:1 ✺
08.12.25	Posta Rangers - Nairobi United	2:0 ✺
04.12.25	Nairobi United - Mathare United	0:1 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
30.11.25	Nairobi United - Maniema Union	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTLLL
- Gor Mahia
Kenyan Premier League
17.12.25	Gor Mahia - Kakamega Homeboyz	1:0 ✺
12.12.25	Bandari - Gor Mahia	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards	0:1 ✺
25.11.25	Gor Mahia - APS Bomet	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan FKF Cup
29.06.25	Gor Mahia - Nairobi United	1:2

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