Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Gor Mahia		AFC Leopards

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.8
	1.97	2.83	3.9
	1.98	3.06	3.83	Watch
	1.97	3.09	4.02
	1.96	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.93)	3 ↓ (3.04)	3.86 ↓ (3.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gor Mahia
46.2%

Draw
30.3%

AFC Leopards
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

29.9%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

29.2%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gor Mahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

AFC Leopards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gor Mahia than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Leopards than the current prediction. (-1%)

Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Masaba J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gor Mahia won 2.

Gor Mahia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Leopards has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Leopards may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gor Mahia is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gor Mahia won 12 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:8. (average 1.5:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gor Mahia won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 1.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gor Mahia
Kenyan Premier League
25.11.25	Gor Mahia - APS Bomet	1:4 ✺
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Police FC - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	1:1 ✺
30.10.25	Mathare United - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWTW
- AFC Leopards
Kenyan Premier League
23.11.25	Kariobangi Sharks - AFC Leopards	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	AFC Leopards - Muranga Seal	0:0 ✺
08.11.25	Mara Sugar - AFC Leopards	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	AFC Leopards - Mathare United	2:0 ✺
29.10.25	Shabana - AFC Leopards	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
02.06.25	Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards	1:1
30.03.25	AFC Leopards - Gor Mahia	0:0
21.04.24	Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards	1:0
07.10.23	AFC Leopards - Gor Mahia	0:2
14.05.23	Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards	1:2
29.01.23	AFC Leopards - Gor Mahia	0:0
08.05.22	Gor Mahia - AFC Leopards	1:1

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