Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi)

Referee: Bayramov E. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Karvan		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5.7	3.45	1.55	Watch
	7.94	3.85	1.48
	4.24	3.30	1.81	Watch
	6.17	3.54	1.53
	4.6	3.1	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.73 ↑ (4.3)	3.45 ↑ (3.1)	1.62 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Karvan
16.1%

Draw
26.8%

Turan Tovuz
57.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

28.8%

50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

27.3%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Karvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Turan Tovuz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Turan Tovuz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Karvan - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Users Predictions: Turan Tovuz will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Turan Tovuz will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ibrahimov K. (G) 7. Abdullayev A. 6. Abdullayev V. 18. Ahmadov S. 21. Barker I. 20. Mickels J. 2. Sno S. 11. Spence K. C. 19. Thompson G. 33. Turabov E. 32. Yunuszada E. (C)	1. Baklov O. (G) 15. Hackman E. (C) 3. Henrique 32. Hurtado H. 90. Jo Batista 5. Miller R. 19. Olabe R. 17. Sadykhov R. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J. 21. Souza Alex
Substitutes
77. Abdullayev A. 22. Alizada Q. 25. Bulud A. (G) 14. Cahangirov U. 4. Doyeni O. 10. Durrant S. 3. Irankhah S. 8. Kings P. 13. Masimov V. 37. Ngwisani M. 42. Qadirzada I. 12. Rosa V.	4. Aliyev S. 11. Guseynov A. 13. Haciyev M. (G) 88. Hadzhiyev F. 10. Nacafov K. 29. Ozobic F. 2. Rzayev A. 77. Rzayev V. 41. Samok S. (G) 99. Wadji I. 6. Yusifli F.
Coaches
Hashimov A.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Turabov E. 🟨,
18', Miller R. 🟨,
41', Sno S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Ibrahimov K. ↓, Bulud A. ↑,
57', Sadykhov R. ↓, Ozobic F. ↑,
57', Souza Alex ↓, Guseynov A. ↑,
65', Hurtado H. ↓, Aliyev S. ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Sno S. ⚽,
71', 1 - 1, Serrano A. ⚽,
74', 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, Olabe R. ⚽,
81', Henrique ↓, Hadzhiyev F. ↑,
83', Jo Batista ↓, Wadji I. ↑,
85', Yunuszada E. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

Karvan is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Turan has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Turan is seen as the favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Karvan FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.10.25	Sumgayit - Karvan	4:1 ✺
05.10.25	Karvan - Sabah	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Neftchi Baku - Karvan	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Karvan - İmişli	0:3 ✺
14.09.25	Shamakhi - Karvan	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LLTLL
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.10.25	Turan Tovuz - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Sumgayit - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Turan Tovuz - Kapaz	3:0 ✺
20.09.25	Sabah - Turan Tovuz	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Turan Tovuz - Gabala	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWLW

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