Match Info

J1 League - Round 10

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mercari Stadium (Kashima) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	14:00	K-Ball
Japan	15:00	DAZN Japan


	Kashima Antlers		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	1.49	4	5.5
	1.50	4.20	6.00
	1.5	4.15	5.5	Watch
	1.56	4.55	6.09
	1.53	4.39	5.8	Watch
	1.53	4.4	6.05
	1.53	4.41	6	Watch
	1.51	4.3	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.51)	4.3 ↓ (4.4)	5.82 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashima Antlers
61.9%

Draw
21.9%

V-Varen Nagasaki
16.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.4%

21.4%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

21%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashima Antlers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

The chances for V-Varen Nagasaki have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Kashima Antlers - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Kashima Antlers will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayakawa T. (G) 23. Tsukui K. 55. Ueda N. 5. Sekigawa I. 19. Omori S. 24. Hayashu H. 10. Shibasaki G. (C) 8. Matheus Bueno 17. Elber 9. Leo Ceara 77. Cavric A.	1. Goto M. (G) 25. Ominami T. 29. Arai I. 31. Doi K. 88. Masuyama A. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 41. Hasegawa M. 23. Yoneda S. 10. Matheus Jesus 34. Matsumoto T. 99. Jonathan Junior
Substitutes
3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 27. Matsumura Y. 6. Misao K. 35. Motosuna A. 7. Ogawa R. 40. Suzuki Y. 34. Tokuda H. 21. Yamada T. (G) 30. Yoshida M.	21. Diego Pituca 13. Hatano G. (G) 8. Iwasaki Y. 22. Onaga H. 19. Sawada T. 50. Shindo R. 24. Yamada R. 18. Yamasaki R. 7. Yasuda K.
Coaches
Oniki T.	Takagi T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Leo Ceara (Penalty Awarded),
5', 2 - 0, Cavric A. ⚽, Hayashu H. (A),
23', Matsumoto T. 🟨,
43', Jonathan Junior 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Omori S. ↓, Ogawa R. ↑,
54', Matsumoto T. ↓, Yasuda K. ↑,
55', Elber ↓, Matsumura Y. ↑,
67', Arai I. ↓, Shindo R. ↑,
67', Jonathan Junior ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
72', Cavric A. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
72', Shibasaki G. ↓, Misao K. ↑,
82', Yasuda K. 🟨,
85', Leo Ceara ↓, Tokuda H. ↑,
85', Masuyama A. ↓, Onaga H. ↑,
85', Yamaguchi H. ↓, Sawada T. ↑,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 6th and 14th).

Kashima arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by V-Varen Nagasaki have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Kashima carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for Kashima: Anzai K. (Knee Injury) Higuchi Y. (Leg Injury).

Confirmed absences for V-Varen Nagasaki: Campbell N. (Hamstring Injury) Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness) Radotic L. (Inactive) Takahata K. (Inactive).

Our forecast points to a victory for Kashima in today's match, at odds of 1.51.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Kashima has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:6 (averaging 2.4:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kashima against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 10:5 goals (averaging 2.5:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Kashima Antlers	10	6	1	3	21:16	5	19
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	10	2	3	5	11:18	-7	9

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashima Antlers: 7.09% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.43%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashima Antlers
AFC Champions League
13.10.26	Cong An Ha Noi - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
09.10.26	Kashima Antlers - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
23.09.26	Kashima Antlers - Ventforet Kofu	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers	3:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.26	Kashima Antlers - Newcastle Jets	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWTW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J1 League
11.10.26	JEF United Chiba - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.10.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Gainare Tottori - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
19.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Cerezo Osaka	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1
18.08.21	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1
21.12.19	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2
Japan J1 League
15.08.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kashima Antlers	1:2
02.05.18	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1

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