Match Info

Emperors Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Kashima Soccer Stadium (Kashima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 7


	Kashima Antlers		V-Varen Nagasaki

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.3	4.5
	1.77	3.4	3.75
	1.72	3.7	4.35
	1.76	3.92	4.34
				Watch
	1.8	3.5	3.8
	1.74	3.82	4.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.59)	3.61 ↑ (3.48)	4.2 ↓ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashima Antlers
52.6%

Draw
25.5%

V-Varen Nagasaki
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

26.2%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

26%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashima Antlers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting V-Varen Nagasaki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for V-Varen Nagasaki, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Kashima Antlers - V Varen Nagasaki Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Kashima will win (votes: 3 - 60%). V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 2 - 40%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - V-Varen Nagasaki (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Kashima (3.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 2 - 66.7%). V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 71. Araki R. 77. Cavric A. 4. Chida K. 13. Chinen K. 14. Higuchi Y. 9. Leo Ceara 22. Nono K. 7. Ogawa R. 10. Shibasaki G. 23. Tsukui K.	31. Harada G. (G) 4. Dudu Giusti 16. Emerson Deocleciano 11. Junio E. 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 34. Matsumoto T. 3. Sekiguchi M. 48. Teruyama H. 24. Yamada R. 5. Yamaguchi H.
Substitutes
20. Funabashi Y. 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 25. Koike R. 27. Matsumura Y. 6. Misao K. 28. Mizoguchi S. 40. Suzuki Y. 11. Tagawa K. 21. Yamada T. (G)	36. Aoki S. 2. Iio R. 13. Kato M. 10. Matheus Jesus 15. Okano J. 41. Tadokoro R. 17. Takahata K. 1. Tomizawa M. (G) 18. Yamasaki R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Cavric A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Junio E. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
46', Yamada R. ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Ogawa R. ⚽,
58', 2 - 1, Yamasaki R. ⚽,
64', Araki R. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
64', Cavric A. ↓, Matsumura Y. ↑,
68', Sekiguchi M. ↓, Takahata K. ↑,
68', Chinen K. ↓, Funabashi Y. ↑,
68', Shibasaki G. ↓, Misao K. ↑,
75', Kajikawa Y. ↓, Yamada T. ↑,
81', Emerson Deocleciano ↓, Aoki S. ↑,
90', Kushibiki K. ↓, Okano J. ↑,
90+1', Ogawa R. 🟨,

Preview

Recent form of Kashima has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

V-Varen Nagasaki is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

V-Varen Nagasaki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kashima is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashima won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
05.07.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kashima Antlers - Fagiano Okayama	1:2 ✺
21.06.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Kashima Antlers - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
11.06.25	Kashima Antlers - Thespakusatsu Gunma	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW
- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Iwaki - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1 ✺
05.07.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
22.06.25	Roasso Kumamoto - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Omiya Ardija	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
18.08.21	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1
21.12.19	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:2
Japan J1 League
15.08.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Kashima Antlers	1:2
02.05.18	Kashima Antlers - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:1

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