Match Info

J1 League - Round 7

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan, NHK BS1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Nagoya Grampus

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	1.96	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2
	3.45	3.55	1.95	Watch
	3.61	3.84	2.18
	3.26	3.69	2.11	Watch
	3.55	3.80	1.98
	3.53	3.77	2.01	Watch
	3.45	3.65	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↑ (3.18)	3.66 ↑ (3.6)	2.02 ↓ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is -0.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
27.4%

Draw
25.8%

Nagoya Grampus
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

25.6%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

V Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Nagoya will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.75) (votes: 100%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goto M. (G) 50. Shindo R. 29. Arai I. 6. Egawa Y. 23. Yoneda S. 5. Yamaguchi H. (C) 24. Yamada R. 22. Onaga H. 10. Matheus Jesus 41. Hasegawa M. 9. Thiago	1. Schmidt D. (G) 70. Hara T. 13. Fujii H. 55. Tokumoto S. 19. Koda H. 15. Inagaki S. (C) 31. Takamine T. 27. Nakayama K. 7. Izumi R. 22. Kimura Y. 11. Yamagishi Y.
Substitutes
11. Campbell N. 21. Diego Pituca 31. Doi K. 13. Hatano G. (G) 8. Iwasaki Y. 34. Matsumoto T. 20. Nakamura K. 19. Sawada T. 18. Yamasaki R.	49. Fukaya S. 33. Kikuchi T. 58. Koyamatsu T. 14. Morishima T. 2. Nogami Y. 41. Ono M. 35. Pisano A. (G) 30. Sugiura S. 47. Takeuchi Y.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Petrovic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, Matheus Jesus (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, Thiago ⚽, Hasegawa M. (A),
61', Yamagishi Y. ↓, Koyamatsu T. ↑,
61', Tokumoto S. ↓, Kikuchi T. ↑,
61', Izumi R. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
62', Thiago 🟨,
68', Nakayama K. ↓, Morishima T. ↑,
80', Thiago ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
83', Koda H. ↓, Sugiura S. ↑,
86', Matheus Jesus ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
86', Yamada R. ↓, Diego Pituca ↑,
89', Onaga H. ↓, Sawada T. ↑,
89', Hasegawa M. ↓, Doi K. ↑,
90+6', Fujii H. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

V-Varen Nagasaki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nagoya has had a series of home games.

Nagoya is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Emerson Deocleciano (Knee Injury) Nagura T. (Illness)

There will not play in Nagoya: Marcus Vinicius (Broken Leg)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Nagoya Grampus: 0.79% V-Varen Nagasaki: 0.61%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nagoya Grampus	4	2	0	2	6:5	1	6
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	4	1	0	3	4:9	-5	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Kochi United - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.09.26	Vissel Kobe - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1 ✺
02.09.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Ehime	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLTLW
- Nagoya Grampus
Japan J1 League
06.09.26	Nagoya Grampus - Machida Zelvia	1:3 ✺
02.09.26	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Nagoya Grampus	3:0 ✺
29.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gainare Tottori	1:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
22.08.26	Nagoya Grampus - Gamba Osaka	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
03.05.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	1:2
21.02.26	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3
15.09.18	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:4
12.05.18	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	3:0
Japan J2 League
21.10.17	V-Varen Nagasaki - Nagoya Grampus	1:1
25.06.17	Nagoya Grampus - V-Varen Nagasaki	2:0

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