Match Info

J1 League - Round 31

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Kashima Soccer Stadium (Kashima)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Canal GOAT
China	K-Ball
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kashima Antlers		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.9	4.33	Watch
	1.75	3.75	4.05	Watch
	1.79	4	4.5
	1.84	3.65	4.06	Watch
	1.9	3.81	3.89	Watch
	2.28	3.61	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.38)	3.79 ↑ (3.71)	3.91 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashima Antlers
50.6%

Draw
25.1%

Cerezo Osaka
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

25.3%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

25.4%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashima Antlers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kashima Antlers's performance.

Cerezo Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerezo Osaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashima Antlers than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kashima Antlers that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cerezo Osaka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.4%	3.1%	12.5%

Kashima Antlers - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 32 users predict this event. Kashima will win (votes: 27 - 84.4%). Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 4 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashima: 71.8% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Kashima (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kashima Antlers will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Kashima (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Cerezo Osaka (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hayakawa T. (G) 23. Tsukui K. 55. Ueda N. 3. Kim Tae-Hyeon 25. Koike R. 22. Nono K. 13. Chinen K. 10. Shibasaki G. (C) 18. Elber 9. Leo Ceara 17. Talles Brener	21. Kim Jin-Hyeon (C) 16. Okuda H. 33. Nishio R. 44. Hatanaka S. 22. Takahashi N. 5. Kida H. 35. Yoshino K. 17. Sakata R. 55. Vitor Bueno 19. Homma S. 13. Nakajima M.
Substitutes
77. Cavric A. 4. Chida K. 20. Funabashi Y. 29. Kajikawa Y. (G) 27. Matsumura Y. 6. Misao K. 28. Mizoguchi S. 7. Ogawa R. 40. Suzuki Y.	27. Cools D. 77. Fernandes L. 1. Fukui K. (G) 31. Inoue R. 8. Kagawa S. 66. Ohata A. 48. Shibayama M. 10. Tanaka S. 11. Thiago Andrade
Coaches
Oniki T.	Papastamatis A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Kim Tae-Hyeon 🟨,
11', Kida H. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Vitor Bueno (Pen),
31', 1 - 1, Chinen K. ⚽, Ueda N. (A),
41', Yoshino K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Shibasaki G. ↓, Funabashi Y. ↑,
46', Talles Brener ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
46', Takahashi N. ↓, Ohata A. ↑,
51', Chinen K. 🟨,
53', 2 - 1, Leo Ceara ⚽, Ueda N. (A),
62', Sakata R. ↓, Fernandes L. ↑,
62', Kida H. ↓, Tanaka S. ↑,
62', Yoshino K. ↓, Kagawa S. ↑,
64', Hatanaka S. 🟨,
68', Nono K. ↓, Matsumura Y. ↑,
68', Elber ↓, Cavric A. ↑,
68', 3 - 1, Matsumura Y. ⚽,
71', Chinen K. ↓, Misao K. ↑,
74', Homma S. ↓, Thiago Andrade ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 3.

Kashima is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cerezo Osaka has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Kashima has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Kashima: Anzai K. (Knee Injury) Morooka S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Sekigawa I. (Knee Injury) Shimoda Y. (Foot Injury) Tokuda H. (Broken ankle)

There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Noborizato K. (Knee Injury) Takahashi N. (Foot Injury) Uejo S. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kashima won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:12. (average 1.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashima won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.1:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 35.11%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashima Antlers
Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kashima Antlers	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Kashima Antlers - Shonan Bellmare	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kashima Antlers	1:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
27.08.25	Machida Zelvia - Kashima Antlers	3:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
23.08.25	Albirex Niigata - Kashima Antlers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWTLW
- Cerezo Osaka
Japan J1 League
20.09.25	Cerezo Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka	2:4 ✺
31.08.25	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Cerezo Osaka - Vissel Kobe	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Machida Zelvia - Cerezo Osaka	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
12.04.25	Cerezo Osaka - Kashima Antlers	1:0
30.11.24	Cerezo Osaka - Kashima Antlers	0:2
02.03.24	Kashima Antlers - Cerezo Osaka	1:1
16.09.23	Kashima Antlers - Cerezo Osaka	1:0
07.05.23	Cerezo Osaka - Kashima Antlers	0:1
06.07.22	Kashima Antlers - Cerezo Osaka	3:3
29.04.22	Cerezo Osaka - Kashima Antlers	0:3

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