Match Info

League Two - Round 4

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: New Central Park (Kelty)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Kelty Hearts		Dumbarton

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	4.1
	1.68	3.60	4.00
	1.7	3.65	4.2
	1.78	3.85	4.08
	1.72	3.88	4.02	Watch
	1.72	3.8	4
	1.77	3.74	4.25
	1.7	3.7	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.55)	3.73 ↓ (4.15)	4.09 ↓ (5.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kelty Hearts
53.1%

Draw
24.5%

Dumbarton
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

22.2%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.2%

21.5%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kelty Hearts's form might have worsened.

Dumbarton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kelty Hearts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Smith J. (G) 5. Flatman C. 15. Davidson A. 35. Brydon J. (C) 16. Falconer T. 14. Hislop J. 8. McManus C. 6. Ferguson A. 23. Moore L. 11. Cole R. 29. Shanley R.	1. Rice A. (G) 24. Doyle M. (C) 4. Webster K. 3. Omar A. 34. Robson T. 10. Craig D. 17. Spalding A. 27. Kirkpatrick K. 21. Honeyman S. 9. Lang D. 15. McIntosh L.
Substitutes
21. Adamson R. (G) 22. Flatman Z. 3. Hannah C. 9. Higginbotham K. 12. Lawson N. 7. Moffett F. 10. Murray I. 27. Snoddy J. 25. Walker G.	18. Campbell C. 6. Hartington O. 28. Mcconnell J. (G) 11. Sowa J. 8. Todd J. 7. Tomlinson S. 14. Wallace T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, McIntosh L. (Penalty Awarded),
19', 1 - 1, Hislop J. ⚽,
20', 2 - 1, Moore L. ⚽, Cole R. (A),
40', Shanley R. 🟨,
45', Moore L. ↓, Moffett F. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Kirkpatrick K. 🟨,
66', Cole R. ↓, Murray I. ↑,
68', Kirkpatrick K. ↓, Tomlinson S. ↑,
68', Craig D. ↓, Cleary R. ↑,
72', Ferguson A. 🟨,
73', 3 - 1, Ferguson A. ⚽, Shanley R. (A),
74', Moffett F. 🟨,
85', Lang D. ↓, Todd J. ↑,
85', Spalding A. ↓, Sowa J. ↑,
86', Ferguson A. ↓, Lawson N. ↑,
86', Hislop J. ↓, Walker G. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Dumbarton has had a series of home games.

In this match, Kelty Hearts is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Kelty Hearts won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.7:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kelty Hearts won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:6. (average 1:3).

Outrights of Scottish League Two for now

Kelty Hearts: 10.33% Dumbarton: 3.97%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Kelty Hearts	9	4	0	5	13:18	-5	12
6	Dumbarton	9	4	0	5	10:15	-5	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League Two
15.08.26	Elgin City - Kelty Hearts	4:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.08.26	Kelty Hearts - Motherwell 2	4:3 ✺
Scottish League Two
08.08.26	Kelty Hearts - Stirling Albion	3:2 ✺
01.08.26	Forfar Athletic - Kelty Hearts	1:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Aberdeen - Kelty Hearts	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWLL
- Dumbarton
Scottish League Two
15.08.26	Dumbarton - Edinburgh City	0:3 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.08.26	Dumbarton - Airdrieonians	1:3 ✺
Scottish League Two
08.08.26	Dumbarton - Clyde	1:0 ✺
01.08.26	Stirling Albion - Dumbarton	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
25.07.26	Dumbarton - Cove Rangers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Challenge Cup
23.09.25	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	3:3
Scottish League One
05.04.25	Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton	0:6
28.12.24	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	2:0
09.11.24	Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton	2:0
31.08.24	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	2:2
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.09.23	Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts	1:3

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