Match Info

Division 1 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mounthawk Park (Tralee) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
International	18:45	LOI TV


	Kerry		Bray Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.90	3.25	2.25
	2.90	3.35	2.25
	2.94	3.57	2.38
	2.89	3.47	2.21	Watch
	2.85	3.50	2.30
	3.00	3.34	2.30
	2.85	3.35	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.58)	3.4 ↓ (3.65)	2.28 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kerry
32%

Draw
27.3%

Bray Wanderers
40.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.9%

25.4%

38.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

25.3%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kerry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Bray Wanderers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kerry than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bray Wanderers than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Kerry - Bray Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Connor M. (G) 18. Aladesanusi S. 29. Lee E. 14. Hakkinen J. 3. O'Connell S. 24. Borden V. 28. Brookwell N. 41. Bargary C. 7. McGrath S. (C) 10. Murphy C. 11. Okwute D.	13. Hogan R. (G) 2. Kizenga A. 4. Duggan J. 12. Osagie D. 3. Fagbemi B. 18. McCormack B. 6. Sesay J. B. 27. O'Shea D. (C) 20. Sammy T. 17. Oluwabiyi A. 21. Mustali E.
Substitutes
17. Brosnan C. 44. Halwax H. (G) 35. Healy A. 34. Keane R. 37. McCormack C. 21. Palmer L. . Perez	14. Azede N. 30. Cheese E. 10. Ferizaj R. 5. Havales S. 15. Kelly R. 7. Knight C. 25. McGuinnes S. (G) 19. Reddy Z. 23. Ryan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Borden V. 🟨,
35', Bargary C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
54', 0 - 1, Ferizaj R. ⚽,
61', Sesay J. B. ↓, Ryan J. ↑,
63', Okwute D. ↓, Keane R. ↑,
65', Keane R. 🟨,
65', 0 - 2, McCormack B. ⚽,
68', Mustali E. 🟨,
68', 1 - 2, McGrath S. ⚽,
70', Mustali E. ↓, Kelly R. ↑,
81', Oluwabiyi A. ↓, Azede N. ↑,
83', McGrath S. ↓, Healy A. ↑,
90+1', 🟥,
90+1', O'Connell S. 🟥,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kerry won 1.

Kerry has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bray Wanderers has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Kerry has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:37 (averaging 1.3:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kerry against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 10:16 goals (averaging 1.3:2 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Bray Wanderers - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.77%, but this team recently wins 59% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kerry FC Ireland
Irish Division 1
16.10.26	Kerry - Cork City	1:1 ✺
09.10.26	Cobh Ramblers - Kerry	0:2 ✺
02.10.26	Finn Harps - Kerry	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Kerry - Wexford	1:0 ✺
18.09.26	Athlone Town - Kerry	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWWWL
- Bray Wanderers
Irish Division 1
16.10.26	Finn Harps - Bray Wanderers	2:0 ✺
09.10.26	Bray Wanderers - Wexford	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	Bray Wanderers - Cobh Ramblers	1:4 ✺
25.09.26	University College Dublin - Bray Wanderers	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Bray Wanderers - Treaty United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
11.09.26	Kerry - Bray Wanderers	0:1
31.07.26	Bray Wanderers - Kerry	0:4
22.05.26	Kerry - Bray Wanderers	2:2
27.03.26	Bray Wanderers - Kerry	2:1
17.10.25	Bray Wanderers - Kerry	5:1
20.06.25	Kerry - Bray Wanderers	2:1
25.04.25	Bray Wanderers - Kerry	4:2

Kerry - Bray Wanderers