Match Info

Premiership - Round 31

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Referee: Lee R. (Sco)


	Kilmarnock		Livingston

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.8	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.9
	1.78	3.7	4.15	Watch
	1.82	3.84	4.43
	1.82	3.79	4.15	Watch
	1.8	3.5	4
	1.83	3.85	4.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.08)	3.73 ↑ (3.28)	4.16 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kilmarnock
52.1%

Draw
25.3%

Livingston
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.2%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

27.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kilmarnock's performance.

Livingston has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Kilmarnock that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Livingston than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Kilmarnock - Livingston Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kilmarnock (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Kilmarnock will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Roos K. (G) 2. Brandon J. 14. Stanger G. 6. Deas R. (C) 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 23. Watkins M. 31. Polworth L. 36. Tshibola A. 52. Curtis F. 44. Hugill J. 11. Kiltie G.	28. Prior J. (G) 23. Kabongolo B. 27. Wilson D. (C) 19. Finlayson D. 2. Kerr C. 24. Sylla M. 8. Pittman S. 25. Tait M. 26. Montano C. 9. Muirhead R. 7. Nouble J.
Substitutes
19. Anderson B. 20. Clescenco N. 18. Lowery T. 8. Lyons B. 5. Mayo L. 7. McKenzie R. 1. Stryjek M. (G) 3. Thompson D. 12. Watson D.	37. Arfield S. 18. Bokila J. 20. Danso E. 3. Fati B. 17. May S. 5. McGowan R. 10. McKay B. 32. Smith J. (G) 15. Smith L.
Coaches
McCann N.	Bartley M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Hugill J. ⚽, Watkins M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Watkins M. ↓, Watson D. ↑,
56', Tshibola A. ↓, Lyons B. ↑,
62', Montano C. 🟨,
63', Muirhead R. ↓, McKay B. ↑,
63', Tait M. ↓, Smith L. ↑,
67', Schjonning-Larsen M. ↓, Thompson D. ↑,
67', Polworth L. ↓, Lowery T. ↑,
72', Nouble J. ↓, Bokila J. ↑,
72', Pittman S. ↓, Danso E. ↑,
73', Wilson D. ↓, Arfield S. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Curtis F. ⚽, Hugill J. (A),
79', Kiltie G. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
84', Kabongolo B. 🟥,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 11 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 12 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: )).

Kilmarnock is Premiership (Relegation Group )

Livingston is Premiership (Relegation Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Kilmarnock is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Kilmarnock: Daniels D. (Knee Injury) John-Jules T. (Injury) Kennedy M. (Hip Injury) Magennis K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Livingston: Denholm A. (Hamstring Injury) Lawal S. (Inactive) McLennan C. (Ankle Injury) Zimmerman J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Kilmarnock: Tshibola A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Livingston: Nouble J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kilmarnock won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Kilmarnock: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Kilmarnock	8	1	2	5	7:18	-11	5

Last Results with these Odds

Livingston - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 27.32%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
14.03.26	Kilmarnock - Hearts	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Falkirk - Kilmarnock	5:1 ✺
21.02.26	Dundee United - Kilmarnock	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Kilmarnock - Celtic	2:3 ✺
11.02.26	Kilmarnock - St. Mirren	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WLTLW
- Livingston FC
Scottish Premier League
14.03.26	Hibernian - Livingston	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Livingston - St. Mirren	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Livingston - Glasgow Rangers	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Dundee - Livingston	2:2 ✺
11.02.26	Celtic - Livingston	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
10.01.26	Livingston - Kilmarnock	1:1
02.08.25	Kilmarnock - Livingston	2:2
Scottish League Cup
16.07.25	Kilmarnock - Livingston	1:0
Scottish Premier League
07.02.24	Kilmarnock - Livingston	1:0
16.12.23	Livingston - Kilmarnock	0:0
21.10.23	Kilmarnock - Livingston	3:1
13.05.23	Kilmarnock - Livingston	2:0

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