Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 8 August 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rugby Park (Kilmarnock) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Menelaos A. (Cyp)


	Kilmarnock		Tromsø

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	2.7	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.75
	2.5	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.4	3.25	3.1
	2.47	3.19	2.88	Watch
	2.44	3.3	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.01)	3.16 ↓ (3.28)	2.85 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kilmarnock
37.9%

Draw
29.4%

Tromsø
32.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.4%

27.9%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

28.1%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kilmarnock has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kilmarnock's form might have worsened.

Tromsø has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tromsø's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kilmarnock, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tromsø than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tromsø, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Kilmarnock - Tromsø Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Kilmarnock will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Tromsø will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 42.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19.9% – 64.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
20. McCrorie R. (G) 8. Lyons B. 4. Wright J. 5. Mayo L. 17. Findlay S. 11. Armstrong D. 22. Donnelly L. 31. Polworth L. 10. Kennedy M. 9. Vassell K. (C) 19. Anderson B.	1. Haugaard J. (G) 5. Jenssen A. 21. Guddal T. 4. Skjaervik V. 17. Paintsil Y. 8. Antonsen K. 11. Jenssen R. (C) 6. Hjerto-Dahl J. 23. Norheim R. 10. Romsaas J. 9. Nordas L.
Substitutes
51. Bainbridge O. 26. Brannan B. 18. Cameron I. 6. Deas R. 27. Leslie K. 14. Mackay-Steven G. 7. McKenzie R. 15. Murray F. 1. O'Hara K. (G) 25. Schilte-Brown E. 24. Wales B. 12. Watson D.	14. Barry M. T. 2. Cornic L. 15. Erlien V. 33. Jensen H. (G) 18. Johnsgard M. 19. Larsen H. 25. Nilsen L. 28. Psyche C. 12. Thomas S. (G) 7. Winther F.
Coaches
McInnes D.	Holme G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Vassell K. ⚽, Lyons B. (A),
43', Wright J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Anderson B. ↓, Murray F. ↑,
46', Norheim R. ↓, Cornic L. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Romsaas J. ⚽,
64', 1 - 2, Nordas L. ⚽,
65', Polworth L. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
65', Donnelly L. ↓, Watson D. ↑,
68', Paintsil Y. 🟨,
70', Antonsen K. ↓, Winther F. ↑,
70', Jenssen A. ↓, Barry M. T. ↑,
78', Paintsil Y. ↓, Nilsen L. ↑,
86', Nordas L. ↓, Larsen H. ↑,
88', Armstrong D. ↓, Wales B. ↑,
88', Kennedy M. ↓, Mackay-Steven G. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Wales B. ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Kilmarnock is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Tromsø is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kilmarnock could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
04.08.24	Celtic - Kilmarnock	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.08.24	Cercle Brugge - Kilmarnock	1:0 ✺
25.07.24	Kilmarnock - Cercle Brugge	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.24	Kilmarnock - Barrow	5:0 ✺
11.07.24	Ayr United - Kilmarnock	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLTWL
- Tromsø IL
Norwegian Eliteserien
04.08.24	Rosenborg - Tromsø	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
01.08.24	Tromsø - KuPS Kuopio	1:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
28.07.24	Tromsø - Kristiansund	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
25.07.24	KuPS Kuopio - Tromsø	0:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
21.07.24	Strømsgodset - Tromsø	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWTWW

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