Match Info

Super Lig - Round 15

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadium (Izmit)

Referee: Sansalan A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1


	Kocaelispor		Kasımpaşa

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.78	3.43	4.72
	1.82	3.48	5.12
	1.78	3.51	4.86	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.6
	1.85	3.58	4.73	Watch
	1.72	3.33	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.87)	3.45 ↑ (3.41)	4.79 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kocaelispor
53%

Draw
27.4%

Kasımpaşa
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

27.7%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

27.2%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Kasımpaşa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kasımpaşa than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	42.9%	7.1%

Kocaelispor - Kasımpaşa Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kocaelispor will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Kasımpaşa will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kocaelispor: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Kocaelispor (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Kocaelispor (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jovanovic A. (G) 22. Oguz A. (C) 2. Dijksteel A. 6. Smolcic H. 21. Haidara M. 14. Show 10. Linetty K. 17. Churlinov D. 75. Bingol T. 98. Nonge J. 19. Dursun S.	1. Gianniotis A. (G) 20. Opoku N. 4. Arous A. 21. Frimpong G. 14. Espinoza J. 6. Ustundag C. 16. Baldursson A. F. 34. Diabate F. 7. Fall M. (C) 9. Barasi Y. 77. Gueye P.
Substitutes
5. Balogh B. 3. Cinan M. 35. Degirmenci G. (G) 8. Keita H. 70. Keles C. 9. Petkovic B. 99. Rivas R. 15. Serbest T. 34. Syrota O. 23. Yalcin S.	29. Aydin T. 96. Demirelli A. 72. Eratilla Y. 17. Kanatsizkus K. 11. Kol A. 5. Mujde A. 41. Szalai At. 33. Tasdemir E. 42. Yigit E. 23. Yilmaz O.
Coaches
Inan S.	Belozoglu E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Espinoza J. 🟨,
42', Smolcic H. ↓, Balogh B. ↑,
45', Oguz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Linetty K. ↓, Keita H. ↑,
59', Nonge J. ↓, Keles C. ↑,
69', Barasi Y. 🟨,
69', Barasi Y. ↓, Kol A. ↑,
81', Churlinov D. ↓, Rivas R. ↑,
82', Bingol T. ↓, Petkovic B. ↑,
85', Gueye P. ↓, Kanatsizkus K. ↑,
85', Diabate F. ↓, Szalai At. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 14).

Kocaelispor is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kasımpaşa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kasımpaşa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kocaelispor is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Kocaelispor: Wieteska M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Kasımpaşa: Albayrak E. (Suspended) Cetinkaya E. (Inactive) Hajradinovic H. (Knee Injury) Tasdemir E. (Injury) Yanar A. (Suspended)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kocaelispor won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 1.5:5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kocaelispor
Turkish Cup
03.12.25	Karacabey Belediyespor - Kocaelispor	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
28.11.25	Kocaelispor - Gençlerbirliği	1:0 ✺
23.11.25	Göztepe - Kocaelispor	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Kocaelispor - Galatasaray	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kocaelispor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.5 WWTWL
- Kasımpaşa
Turkish Super League
29.11.25	Kasımpaşa - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Alanyaspor - Kasımpaşa	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Kasımpaşa - Göztepe	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Kayserispor - Kasımpaşa	3:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
29.10.25	Kahta 02 Spor - Kasımpaşa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Cup
28.12.21	Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor	5:3 ET
01.11.12	Kasımpaşa - Kocaelispor	5:0

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