Match Info

POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 24

Date: 7 March 2025, Friday

Location: Exbud Arena (Kielce)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Korona Kielce		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.33
	1.88	3.35	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.35	4.49
	1.91	3.37	4.37	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4
	1.86	3.43	4.36	Watch
	1.88	3.35	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.01)	3.36 ↑ (3.21)	4.26 ↑ (3.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Korona Kielce
50%

Draw
28%

Puszcza Niepołomice
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

28.8%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

28.2%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Korona Kielce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Puszcza Niepołomice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Korona Kielce than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.7%	12.5%	18.7%

Korona Kielce - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Korona will win (votes: 11 - 68.8%). Puszcza will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Korona: 46.1% – 91.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
87. Mamla R. (G) 44. Sotiriou K. 24. Smolarczyk B. 66. Trojak M. (C) 37. Zwozny H. 8. Remacle M. 11. Nono 6. Pieczek M. 71. Dlugosz W. 17. Fornalczyk M. 20. Dalmau A.	1. Komar K. (G) 22. Craciun A. 27. Solowiej L. 3. Yakuba R. 33. Abramowicz D. 6. Atanasov J. 14. Serafin J. (C) 12. Stepien M. 24. Blagaic J. 67. Revenco I. 63. Barkovsky G.
Substitutes
1. Dziekonski X. (G) 28. Godinho M. 88. Kaminski W. 19. Konstantyn J. 10. Nagamatsu S. 27. Pedro N. 5. Resta P. 9. Shikavka Y. 13. Strzeboński M.	45. Kidric R. 7. Klimek A. 35. Kosidis M. 31. Perchel M. (G) 9. Siemaszko A. 18. Siplak M. 19. Stec J. 88. Zhukov G.
Coaches
Zielinski J.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Zwozny H. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Craciun A. (Pen),
41', Serafin J. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Fornalczyk M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zwozny H. ↓, Godinho M. ↑,
48', Revenco I. 🟨,
59', Serafin J. ↓, Zhukov G. ↑,
59', Solowiej L. ↓, Klimek A. ↑,
61', Stepien M. 🟨,
70', Dlugosz W. ↓, Pedro N. ↑,
80', Blagaic J. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Remacle M. ⚽, Dalmau A. (A),
82', Dalmau A. ↓, Shikavka Y. ↑,
82', Pieczek M. ↓, Konstantyn J. ↑,
82', Craciun A. 🟨,
86', Barkovsky G. ↓, Stec J. ↑,
86', Stepien M. ↓, Siemaszko A. ↑,
88', Remacle M. ↓, Kaminski W. ↑,
90+3', Godinho M. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Korona won 2.

Korona is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Puszcza is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Korona is a favorite.

There will not play in Korona: Hofmayster Y. (Injury) Matuszewski K. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Puszcza: Mrozinski P. (Yellow Cards) Szymonowicz D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Puszcza: Siemaszko A. (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Korona won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 18:19 (average 1.5:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Korona won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 14:11 (average 2:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Korona Kielce
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.03.25	Stal Mielec - Korona Kielce	0:1 ✺
Polish Cup
25.02.25	Ruch Chorzów - Korona Kielce	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.02.25	Korona Kielce - Śląsk Wrocław	2:0 ✺
14.02.25	Cracovia - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
09.02.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WLWTW
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.03.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
Polish Cup
27.02.25	Polonia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.02.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:2 ✺
15.02.25	Legia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
10.02.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Zagłębie Lubin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
31.08.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Korona Kielce	0:0
29.04.24	Puszcza Niepołomice - Korona Kielce	1:1
27.10.23	Korona Kielce - Puszcza Niepołomice	5:3
Club Friendly
19.01.22	Korona Kielce - Puszcza Niepołomice	4:1
Polish Division 1
27.11.21	Puszcza Niepołomice - Korona Kielce	5:2
09.08.21	Korona Kielce - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:1
13.03.21	Korona Kielce - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:0

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