Match Info

Division 1 - Round 10

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Polonii (Warsaw)

Referee: Lezny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Polonia Warsaw		Puszcza Niepołomice

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.8	5	Watch
	1.62	3.9	4.75
	1.66	4.01	4.84
	10.81	5.40	1.26	Watch
	1.65	3.84	4.65
	1.92	3.61	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (1.78)	4.09 ↑ (3.65)	4.03 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Polonia Warsaw
38.7%

Draw
30.4%

Puszcza Niepołomice
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

25.2%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

24.7%

22.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Polonia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Polonia Warsaw's form might have worsened.

Puszcza Niepołomice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Puszcza Niepołomice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Polonia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Polonia Warsaw, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Puszcza Niepołomice than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Puszcza Niepołomice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.2%	23.1%	7.7%

Polonia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Polonia will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Puszcza will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Polonia: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Polonia (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Polonia (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
96. Kuchta M. (C) 17. Dadok R. 99. Durmus I. 2. Grudniewski M. 5. Hoxhallari E. 97. Janasik P. 16. Poczobut B. 3. Salihu H. 23. Skrabb S. 8. Wojciechowski O. 9. Zjawinski L.	97. Kowal W. (G) 67. Barczak N. 10. Cholewiak M. 17. Iwao K. 2. Kasolik K. 8. Mrozinski P. 88. Nascimento F. (C) 34. Piekarski A. 22. Simon C. 19. Stec J. 16. Walski M.
Substitutes
10. Bajdur M. 20. Brasido D. . Buksa A. 26. Gnaase D. 21. Kapusta A. 44. Piotrowski B. 1. Sandach A. (G) 4. Szur P. 7. Vega D.	21. Basse A. 18. Francois E. 11. Korczakowski O. 31. Perchel M. (G) 23. Przybylko K. 9. Smiglewski K. 27. Solowiej L. 5. Stepien K. 7. Stepien M.
Coaches
Pawlak M.	Tulacz T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
19', Salihu H. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Nascimento F. (Pen),
25', 0 - 2, Simon C. ⚽, Nascimento F. (A),
45', Janasik P. ↓, Brasido D. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Salihu H. ↓, Szur P. ↑,
55', Stec J. 🟨,
58', Simon C. ↓, Smiglewski K. ↑,
58', Stec J. ↓, Stepien K. ↑,
62', 1 - 2, Szur P. ⚽, Skrabb S. (A),
62', Skrabb S. ↓, Bajdur M. ↑,
62', Dadok R. ↓, Vega D. ↑,
68', Iwao K. ↓, Stepien M. ↑,
74', Piekarski A. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
74', Cholewiak M. ↓, Korczakowski O. ↑,
75', Mrozinski P. 🟨,
83', Poczobut B. ↓, Buksa A. ↑,
90+1', Bajdur M. 🟨,
90+4', Barczak N. 🟨,
90+5', Korczakowski O. 🟨,
90+6', Brasido D. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Puszcza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Polonia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Polonia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Polonia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Puszcza Niepołomice - the odds 4 are the expected chance of winning is 23.03%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Polonia Warsaw
Polish Division 1
14.09.25	Miedź Legnica - Polonia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2:1 ✺
23.08.25	ŁKS Łódź - Polonia Warsaw	2:2 ✺
19.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Wieczysta Kraków	1:6 ✺
15.08.25	Polonia Warsaw - Ruch Chorzów	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWTLT
- Puszcza Niepołomice
Polish Division 1
13.09.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Puszcza Niepołomice	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
06.09.25	Wisła Kraków - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:4 ✺
Polish Division 1
31.08.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Chrobry Głogów	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Pogoń Siedlce - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:0 ✺
21.08.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - GKS Tychy	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
27.02.25	Polonia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ET
Polish Division 2
06.05.17	Puszcza Niepołomice - Polonia Warsaw	3:2
07.10.16	Polonia Warsaw - Puszcza Niepołomice	0:0

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