Match Info

Parva liga - Relegation Group - Round 37

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Nikola Shterev - Starika Sports Complex (Plovdiv)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra


	Krumovgrad		Septemvri Sofia

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.75	5.75
	1.51	4.2	5.25
	1.4	4.6	6.8
	1.42	4.76	6.4
	1.43	4.78	6.3	Watch
	1.5	4	5
	1.42	4.75	6.85
	1.62	3.8	4.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.99)	4.46 ↑ (3.51)	5.9 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Krumovgrad
63.3%

Draw
20.9%

Septemvri Sofia
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

26.5%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

26.2%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Krumovgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Krumovgrad's performance.

Septemvri Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Septemvri Sofia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (-17.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Krumovgrad that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Septemvri Sofia than the current prediction. (+11.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Septemvri Sofia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Krumovgrad - Septemvri Sofia Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Krumovgrad (2.04) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Septemvri Sofia (4.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Septemvri Sofia (2.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Septemvri Sofia (4.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Krumovgrad will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Krumovgrad will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Krumovgrad (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Septemvri Sofia (votes: 4 - 36.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Georgiev Y. (G) 98. Tartov G. 25. Rabotov S. 24. Marin L. 7. Tsvetanov M. 13. Isuf A. 22. Dost E. 70. Veiga T. 10. Itu C. 11. Yusein O. 19. Milev N.	21. Sheytanov D. (G) 5. Polendakov M. 13. Onasci K. 6. Ochayi V. 16. Atanasov Z. A. 9. Chandarov A. 8. Moran M. 19. Mitkov M. 33. Ivanov G. 22. Vitinho 11. Rupanov B.
Substitutes
6. Alonso I. 17. Dobrev K. 91. Ivanov H. 27. Keita I. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 12. Prandzhev N. (G) 9. Vasilev I.	17. Amade A. 25. Dzhamov A. 15. Fourrier B. 24. Gutierrez J. 12. Ivanov Vladimir (G) 14. Marinov B. 10. Nikolov V. 23. Velickovski N.
Coaches
Kirilov R.	Mitov N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Tartov G. 🟨,
31', Vitinho 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', Itu C. 🟨,
57', Yusein O. ↓, Keita I. ↑,
58', Rupanov B. ↓, Fourrier B. ↑,
59', Mitkov M. ↓, Marinov B. ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Fourrier B. ⚽,
76', Ochayi V. ↓, Amade A. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Keita I. ⚽,
78', Tsvetanov M. 🟨,
81', Keita I. 🟨,
89', Dost E. ↓, Alonso I. ↑,
90+3', Ivanov G. ↓, Nikolov V. ↑,
90+4', Chandarov A. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Moran M. ⚽,

Preview

Krumovgrad has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Septemvri Sofia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Krumovgrad is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Krumovgrad: Lucas Santana (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Krumovgrad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Krumovgrad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.05.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Krumovgrad	2:0 ✺
15.05.25	Krumovgrad - Slavia Sofia	0:1 ✺
11.05.25	Botev Vratsa - Krumovgrad	1:0 ✺
06.05.25	Krumovgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:4 ✺
01.05.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLLW
- Septemvri Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
20.05.25	Septemvri Sofia - Lokomotiv Sofia	0:2 ✺
15.05.25	Septemvri Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Septemvri Sofia	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Septemvri Sofia - Slavia Sofia	3:1 ✺
02.05.25	Botev Vratsa - Septemvri Sofia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
24.02.25	Septemvri Sofia - Krumovgrad	1:0
31.08.24	Krumovgrad - Septemvri Sofia	2:0
Bulgarian Cup
23.11.22	Krumovgrad - Septemvri Sofia	0:1

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