Match Info

Russian Cup - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Samara Arena (Samara)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Q Football Asia
Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Krylya Sovetov		Sochi

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.35	4.04
	2.08	3.47	3.98	Watch
	1.78	3.65	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↑ (1.78)	3.49 ↓ (3.65)	4.04 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Krylya Sovetov
48.9%

Draw
27.4%

Sochi
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

25.4%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

24.6%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Krylya Sovetov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Sochi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krylya Sovetov than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sochi than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

Krylya Sovetov - Sochi Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Krylya Sovetov will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Krylya Sovetov (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Krylya Sovetov will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Krylya Sovetov (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
80. Kokarev N. (G) 77. Akhmetov I. 14. Banjac M. 23. Chernov N. 24. Evgenyev R. 91. Ignatenko V. 21. Ivanisenia D. 18. Lepskii I. 26. Marin J. 2. Pechenin K. 15. Rasskazov N. (C)	35. Degtev A. (G) 5. Aberdin N. 8. Ignatov M. 98. Iljin V. 45. Kamano F. 10. Kramaric M. 4. Litvinov V. 17. Makarchuk A. 33. Marcelo Alves (C) 16. Mukhin M. 34. Osipov A.
Substitutes
47. Bozhin S. 22. Fernando Costanza 39. Frolov E. (G) 38. Gaich A. 71. Nedospasov M. (G) 19. Oleynikov I. 5. Oroz D. 11. Rahmanovic A. 9. Sutormin A.	15. Agbalaka S. 99. Dyupin Y. (G) 9. Fedorov Z. 18. Korneev A. 19. Kovalenko A. 14. Kravtsov K. 88. Lomaev I. (G) 3. Soldatenkov A. 20. Vasiljev D. 82. Volkov S. 27. Zaika K. 7. Zinkovskiy A.
Coaches
Adiev M.	Osinkin I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', Chernov N. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Ignatov M. ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, Evgenyev R. ⚽, Akhmetov I. (A),
45', 2 - 1, Aberdin N. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Kamano F. ↓, Korneev A. ↑,
46', Iljin V. ↓, Zaika K. ↑,
62', Marin J. ↓, Oleynikov I. ↑,
63', Marcelo Alves ↓, Agbalaka S. ↑,
63', Ignatenko V. ↓, Gaich A. ↑,
70', 2 - 2, Kramaric M. (Pen),
70', Kokarev N. 🟨,
70', Kramaric M. 🟨,
75', Banjac M. ↓, Fernando Costanza ↑,
75', Akhmetov I. ↓, Sutormin A. ↑,
75', Evgenyev R. ↓, Bozhin S. ↑,
77', Mukhin M. ↓, Kravtsov K. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Chernov N. ⚽,
84', Ignatov M. ↓, Zinkovskiy A. ↑,
87', 3 - 3, Zinkovskiy A. ⚽,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Makarchuk A. (Pen),
1, Lepskii I. (Pen),
2, Kramaric M. (Pen),
2, Sutormin A. (Pen),
3, Zinkovskiy A. (Pen),
3, Oleynikov I. (Pen),
4, Kravtsov K. (Pen),
4, Fernando Costanza (Pen),
5, Osipov A. (Pen),
5, Pechenin K. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Krylya Sovetov won 4.

Krylya Sovetov has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sochi has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Sochi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Krylya Sovetov will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Krylya Sovetov won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:6. (average 1.7:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Krylya Sovetov won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 1.4:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Krylya Sovetov Samara
Russian Premier League
26.09.25	Krylya Sovetov - Dynamo Moscow	2:3 ✺
21.09.25	Spartak Moscow - Krylya Sovetov	2:1 ✺
Russian Cup
17.09.25	Krylya Sovetov - Krasnodar	1:2 ✺
Russian Premier League
14.09.25	Krylya Sovetov - Sochi	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Lokomotiv Moscow - Krylya Sovetov	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLLWT
- FC Sochi
Russian Premier League
28.09.25	Dynamo Makhachkala - Sochi	0:0 ✺
22.09.25	Sochi - CSKA Moscow	1:3 ✺
Russian Cup
17.09.25	Sochi - Dynamo Moscow	0:4 ✺
Russian Premier League
14.09.25	Krylya Sovetov - Sochi	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Spartak Moscow - Sochi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
14.09.25	Krylya Sovetov - Sochi	2:0
Russian Cup
13.08.25	Sochi - Krylya Sovetov	2:1 penalties
Russian Premier League
02.12.23	Sochi - Krylya Sovetov	0:2
23.09.23	Krylya Sovetov - Sochi	2:1
09.04.23	Sochi - Krylya Sovetov	1:2
16.10.22	Krylya Sovetov - Sochi	2:0
20.03.22	Sochi - Krylya Sovetov	2:3

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