Match Info

GERMANY: 3. Liga - Round 36

Date: 3 May 2024, Friday

Location: Stadion Lohmühle (Lubeck)

Referee: Hildenbrand M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Germany	Magenta Sport
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Lübeck		Duisburg

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.5	3.6	1.95
	3.6	3.6	1.95
	3.35	3.5	2.2
	3.71	3.82	1.97
	3.4	3.5	1.91
	3.56	3.63	1.91
	3.6	3.55	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (2.83)	3.6 ↑ (3.4)	1.97 ↓ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lübeck
26.3%

Draw
26%

Duisburg
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

27.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

28.7%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lübeck has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lübeck's form might have worsened.

Duisburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Duisburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lübeck than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lübeck, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Duisburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	33.3%	44.4%

Lübeck - Duisburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Lübeck will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Duisburg will win (votes: 8 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Duisburg: 21.4% – 67.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Klewin P. (G) 13. Thiel M. 30. Lohden J. 27. Reddemann S. 10. Farrona-Pulido M. 20. Taffertshofer U. (C) 8. Egerer F. 7. Hauptmann M. 25. Gozusirin T. 21. Velasco R. 16. Beleme D.	24. Braune M. (G) 29. Bitter J. 17. Knoll M. (C) 15. Fleckstein T. 11. Kolle N. 5. Castaneda S. 23. Stierlin N. 39. Engin A. 10. Pledl T. 40. Esswein A. 31. Girth B.
Substitutes
34. Adou E. 14. Akono C. 23. Daube M. 28. Didzilatis G. (G) 11. Drinkuth F. 5. Herzog A. 2. Kolle R. 44. Lehnfeld M. 41. Varol Y.	6. Bakalorz M. 9. Bakir A. 21. Feltscher R. 33. Ginczek D. 22. Kother T. 2. Mogultay B. 20. Muller R. 1. Muller V. (G) 13. Zenga E.
Coaches
Martens J.	Schubert U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Girth B. ⚽, Castaneda S. (A),
32', Taffertshofer U. 🟨,
32', Esswein A. 🟨,
35', Bitter J. ↓, Feltscher R. ↑,
37', Thiel M. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Beleme D. ⚽, Gozusirin T. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 2)
46', Stierlin N. ↓, Bakalorz M. ↑,
46', Egerer F. ↓, Herzog A. ↑,
46', Pledl T. ↓, Bakir A. ↑,
46', Esswein A. ↓, Kother T. ↑,
48', 1 - 2, Girth B. ⚽, Kother T. (A),
54', Girth B. ↓, Ginczek D. ↑,
56', 1 - 3, Castaneda S. ⚽, Engin A. (A),
63', Farrona-Pulido M. ↓, Drinkuth F. ↑,
63', Velasco R. ↓, Lehnfeld M. ↑,
68', 2 - 3, Drinkuth F. ⚽, Lehnfeld M. (A),
72', 3 - 3, Beleme D. ⚽,
76', Castaneda S. 🟨,
77', 4 - 3, Lehnfeld M. ⚽, Beleme D. (A),
83', Beleme D. ↓, Akono C. ↑,
83', Taffertshofer U. ↓, Varol Y. ↑,
90+4', 5 - 3, Gozusirin T. (Pen),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Duisburg will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Lübeck won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Lübeck won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vfb Lübeck
German 3 Bundesliga
26.04.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Lübeck	0:0 ✺
20.04.24	Lübeck - Borussia Dortmund II	0:5 ✺
13.04.24	Unterhaching - Lübeck	4:1 ✺
06.04.24	Lübeck - Verl	0:0 ✺
31.03.24	Viktoria Köln - Lübeck	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLLTL
- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
27.04.24	Duisburg - Sandhausen	3:1 ✺
20.04.24	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
12.04.24	Duisburg - Waldhof Mannheim	1:1 ✺
07.04.24	Rot-Weiß Essen - Duisburg	4:1 ✺
31.03.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
02.12.23	Duisburg - Lübeck	1:0
31.01.21	Duisburg - Lübeck	3:1
03.10.20	Lübeck - Duisburg	1:1

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