Match Info

3. Liga - Round 11

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Audi Sportpark (Ingolstadt) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Benen L. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Germany	14:00	BR Fernsehen, Magenta Sport, WDR Fernsehen
Switzerland	14:00	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
International	12:00	OneFootball TV


	Ingolstadt		Duisburg

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.40	2.00	Watch
	2.90	3.70	2.20
	3.05	3.65	2.07	Watch
	3.17	3.71	2.19
	3.04	3.65	2.14	Watch
	3.10	3.60	2.13
	2.99	3.48	2.07	Watch
	3.00	3.65	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.03 ↓ (3.2)	3.61 ↓ (3.78)	2.12 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ingolstadt
30.6%

Draw
25.7%

Duisburg
43.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29%

24.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.5%

23.3%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ingolstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Duisburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Duisburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ingolstadt - Duisburg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
47. Klein D. (G) 14. Plath M. 6. Antzoulas G. 15. Scholz J. 19. Rosenlocher L. 34. Frode L. 5. Gul E. 8. Carlsen F. 41. Sapina V. 28. Velupillay N. 13. Lokotsch L. (C)	1. Braune M. (G) 29. Bitter J. 4. Ens M. 5. Fleckstein T. 40. Schlicke B. 3. Christensen F. 14. Noss C. 6. Bulic R. (C) 8. Casar A. 11. Kother D. 9. Lobinger L.
Substitutes
4. Decker E. 20. Deichmann Y. 16. Ganda J. 37. Kanuric B. 10. Kaygin D. 23. Maljojoki J. 1. Ponath M. (G) 7. Seo Jong-min 17. Ugondu O.	17. Besuschkow M. 27. Coskun C. 43. Haddou R. 20. Jessen N. 26. Kruger F. 39. Remmert P. 19. Safi R. 33. Stahl T. (G) 37. Sussek P.
Coaches
Beierlorzer A.	Hirsch D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Kother D. ⚽, Lobinger L. (A),
16', Plath M. 🟨,
18', Schlicke B. 🟨,
18', 🟨,
22', 1 - 1, Sapina V. ⚽, Carlsen F. (A),
34', Antzoulas G. 🟥,
37', Gul E. ↓, Decker E. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Schlicke B. ↓, Kruger F. ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Carlsen F. ⚽, Velupillay N. (A),
66', Lokotsch L. ↓, Ugondu O. ↑,
67', Velupillay N. ↓, Kaygin D. ↑,
67', Ens M. 🟨,
73', Ens M. ↓, Coskun C. ↑,
73', Christensen F. ↓, Sussek P. ↑,
73', Kother D. ↓, Remmert P. ↑,
79', Sapina V. ↓, Kanuric B. ↑,
79', Carlsen F. ↓, Deichmann Y. ↑,
79', Bulic R. ↓, Besuschkow M. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes the league leaders in an exciting contest (ranked 9th and 1st in the Promotion - 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ingolstadt won 3.

Ingolstadt has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Duisburg is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Duisburg holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Ingolstadt has recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 30:17 (averaging 1.8:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ingolstadt against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with 13:8 goals (averaging 1.4:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Duisburg	11	8	1	2	28:14	14	25
6	Ingolstadt	11	5	2	4	15:16	-1	17

Outrights of German 3 Bundesliga for now

Duisburg: 27.65% Ingolstadt: 2.17%

Last Results with these Odds

Duisburg - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.42%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
17.10.26	Ingolstadt - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:0 ✺
14.10.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Ingolstadt	0:3 ✺
11.10.26	Ingolstadt - Wehen Wiesbaden	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Nürnberg - Ingolstadt	3:1 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
19.09.26	Viktoria Köln - Ingolstadt	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLLL
- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
18.10.26	Duisburg - Viktoria Köln	1:1 ✺
13.10.26	Saarbrücken - Duisburg	2:4 ✺
10.10.26	Duisburg - Hoffenheim II	3:2 ✺
20.09.26	Wehen Wiesbaden - Duisburg	1:4 ✺
15.09.26	Duisburg - TSV Havelse	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
04.03.26	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	0:0
27.09.25	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	2:1
20.04.24	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	2:0
11.11.23	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:2
12.05.23	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	2:0
12.11.22	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	0:1
15.05.21	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:5

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