Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 17

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Capitao Josino da Costa (Lagoa)


	Lagoa		Comércio e Indústria

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	4.75
	1.73	3.3	4.38
	1.75	3.34	4.49	Watch
	1.69	3.34	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.55)	3.35 ↓ (3.72)	4.61 ↓ (5.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagoa
53.2%

Draw
27.1%

Comércio e Indústria
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.6%

24.4%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

23.3%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lagoa's form might have worsened.

Comércio e Indústria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lagoa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comércio e Indústria than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Lagoa - Comércio e Indústria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 1, ⚽,
77', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Lagoa have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Comércio Indústria is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Lagoa is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lagoa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Lagoa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
25.01.26	Louletano - Lagoa	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Sintrense - Lagoa	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Alcochetense - Lagoa	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Lagoa - Portimonense B	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWLW
- Comércio e Indústria
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
25.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Serpa	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Alcochetense - Comércio e Indústria	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Oriental	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Comércio e Indústria - Alverca B	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Elvas - Comércio e Indústria	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Comércio e Indústria - Lagoa	1:1
15.02.25	Comércio e Indústria - Lagoa	1:2
06.10.24	Lagoa - Comércio e Indústria	3:2

Lagoa - Comércio e Indústria: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide