Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 19

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Capitao Josino da Costa (Lagoa)


	Lagoa		Moncarapachense

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.98	3.55
	2.1	2.97	3.56	Watch
	2.1	2.7	3.5
	2.11	2.88	3.59
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (2.02)	2.88 ↓ (3.1)	3.55 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lagoa
43.2%

Draw
31.3%

Moncarapachense
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

29.2%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.5%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lagoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Moncarapachense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagoa than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Lagoa - Moncarapachense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
7', 1 - 0, ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 11 in the zone Relegation).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lagoa might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lagoa won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lagoa won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Lagoa	4	1	2	1	3:3	0	5

Last Results with these Odds

Moncarapachense - the odds 3.49 are the expected chance of winning is 25.95%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lagoa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.02.26	Juventude de Évora - Lagoa	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Lagoa - Comércio e Indústria	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Louletano - Lagoa	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Sintrense - Lagoa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWLWW
- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
15.02.26	Moncarapachense - Comércio e Indústria	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Serpa - Moncarapachense	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alcochetense	1:3 ✺
17.01.26	Oriental - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alverca B	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
05.10.25	Moncarapachense - Lagoa	1:1
09.02.25	Lagoa - Moncarapachense	0:0
29.09.24	Moncarapachense - Lagoa	2:0

Lagoa - Moncarapachense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide