Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 17

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião (Serpa)


	Serpa		Moncarapachense

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.82	3.5
	2.13	2.82	3.56
	2.15	2.86	3.6	Watch
	2.12	2.84	3.61
	2.12	2.83	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.14)	2.83 ↓ (2.83)	3.55 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serpa
42.6%

Draw
31.9%

Moncarapachense
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

32.1%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

30.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Serpa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Moncarapachense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moncarapachense than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Serpa - Moncarapachense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

(1 - 1)

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 5 and 12 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Serpa won 2.

Recent performances by Serpa have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Moncarapachense's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Serpa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Serpa is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Serpa won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:9. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Serpa won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Serpa	4	1	3	0	6:4	2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
25.01.26	Comércio e Indústria - Serpa	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Lagoa - Serpa	5:0 ✺
10.01.26	Serpa - Alcochetense	2:1 ✺
21.12.25	Serpa - Oriental	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Alverca B - Serpa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLL
- Lusitano Ginásio Clube Moncarapachense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
31.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alcochetense	1:3 ✺
17.01.26	Oriental - Moncarapachense	0:0 ✺
10.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alverca B	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Moncarapachense - Elvas	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Juventude de Évora - Moncarapachense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1
02.03.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	0:0
03.11.24	Serpa - Moncarapachense	2:0
18.02.24	Serpa - Moncarapachense	2:1
28.10.23	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
06.03.22	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1
12.12.21	Serpa - Moncarapachense	1:5

Serpa - Moncarapachense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide