Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Cabero J. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Bolivia	ESPN 2
Brazil	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Greece	ERT 2, ERT Sports 2
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Lanús		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.66	3.5	5.25
	1.41	4.15	8.3
	1.44	4.41	8.67
	1.47	4.12	7.78	Watch
	1.4	4	7.5
	1.42	4.46	7.08	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.64)	4.16 ↑ (3.74)	7.44 ↑ (5.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
64.6%

Draw
22.7%

LDU Quito
12.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

25.3%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

24.4%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lanús's performance.

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lanús that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	18.2%	9.1%

Lanús - LDU Quito Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 7 - 70%). LDU Quito will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 5. Pena Biafore F. 17. Medina A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 77. Besozzi L. 23. Carrera R.	1. Valle G. (G) 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 44. Segovia L. 33. Quinonez L. 14. Quintero J. (C) 15. Villamil G. 8. Pretell J. 23. Quinonez Y. 9. Medina J. 16. Deyverson 7. Redes R.
Substitutes
25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 20. Cabrera B. 30. Cardozo A. 35. De Jesus R. 3. Morgantini N. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M. 19. Valois Y. 8. Watson F. N.	10. Alvarado A. 26. Caicedo J. 21. Castillo E. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 11. Estrada M. 32. Gomez A. 99. Luna Tobar C. 27. Mina R. 5. Minda K. 18. Olvera W. 25. Ortiz P.
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Tiago Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Quinonez Y. 🟨,
15', Guidara T. 🟨,
45+4', Carrera R. 🟨,
45+5', Allala Menendez G. F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
58', Medina J. 🟨,
62', Besozzi L. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
62', Carrera R. ↓, Valois Y. ↑,
72', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
72', Pena Biafore F. ↓, Cardozo A. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Cardozo A. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
77', Deyverson ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
77', Redes R. ↓, Luna Tobar C. ↑,
77', Medina J. ↓, Mina R. ↑,
85', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,

Preview

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lanús is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lanús: Loaiza R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in LDU Quito: Ade R. (Injury)

There are questionable in LDU Quito: Corozo J. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lanús won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

LDU Quito: 1.93%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
24.04.26	Lanús - Central Córdoba	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
16.04.26	Lanús - Always Ready	1:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.04.26	Lanús - Banfield	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Mirassol - Lanús	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLWWL
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.04.26	Emelec - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
22.04.26	LDU Quito - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Independiente del Valle - LDU Quito	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	LDU Quito - Mirassol	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.04.26	Delfín - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
21.08.24	Lanús - LDU Quito	3:1
14.08.24	LDU Quito - Lanús	1:2

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