Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado (Quito)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Ecuador	ESPN
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 4, ESPN
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN


	LDU Quito		Mirassol

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.75	6.5	Watch
	1.57	3.80	5.75
	1.55	3.6	6.3	Watch
	1.59	3.87	6.62
	1.58	3.84	6.45	Watch
	1.54	3.75	6.45
	1.59	3.89	6.48	Watch
	1.6	3.95	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.56)	3.81 ↓ (3.88)	6.34 ↑ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

LDU Quito
60.2%

Draw
24.9%

Mirassol
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.4%

24.2%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

23.7%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Mirassol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	21.4%	7.1%

LDU Quito - Mirassol Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. LDU Quito will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Mirassol will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for LDU Quito: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Valle G. (G) 28. Cuero Mercado J. W. 4. Ade R. (C) 44. Segovia L. 67. Carabali J. 20. Cornejo F. 8. Pretell J. 5. Gonzalez Baquero S. 13. Corozo J. 11. Estrada M. 27. Mina R.	22. Walter (G) 20. Daniel Borges 44. Gabriel Knesowitsch 2. Lucas Oliveira 3. Willian Machado 12. Victor Luis 7. Shaylon 8. Denilson 10. Chico Kim (C) 17. Fernandinho 99. Andre Luis
Substitutes
30. Allala Menendez G. F. 10. Alvarado A. 16. Deyverson 22. Dominguez A. (G) 32. Gomez A. 99. Luna Tobar C. 3. Mina R. 25. Ortiz P. 7. Redes R. 31. Rodriguez J. 77. Velasco K. 26. Zambrano I.	77. Alesson 23. Alex Muralha (G) 30. Bruno Santos 96. Carlos Eduardo 32. Igor Formiga 5. Japa 34. Joao Victor 25. Neto Moura 90. Thomazella (G)
Coaches
Alvarez G.	Rafael Guanaes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Denilson 🟨,
44', Ade R. 🟨,
45+3', Chico Kim 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Chico Kim ↓, Neto Moura ↑,
46', Mina R. ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
52', Corozo J. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
59', Andre Luis 🟨,
70', Gonzalez Baquero S. ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
77', Shaylon ↓, Alesson ↑,
81', Cuero Mercado J. W. ↓, Allala Menendez G. F. ↑,
87', Andre Luis ↓, Bruno Santos ↑,
87', Fernandinho ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
90+2', Denilson ↓, Japa ↑,
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Victor Luis (Penalty Awarded),
1, Deyverson (Penalty Awarded),
2, Alesson (Penalty Awarded),
2, Pretell J. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Carlos Eduardo (Penalty Awarded),
3, Estrada M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Neto Moura (Penalty Awarded),
4, Allala Menendez G. F. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Bruno Santos (Penalty Awarded),
5, Cornejo F. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

LDU Quito is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mirassol is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, LDU Quito is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in LDU Quito: Quinonez Y. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Mirassol: Jose Aldo (Muscle Injury) Negueba (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in LDU Quito: Quintero J. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Edson Carioca (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, LDU Quito won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, LDU Quito won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

LDU Quito: 1.93% Mirassol: 1.93%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.08.26	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.08.26	LDU Quito - Independiente del Valle	0:2 ✺
03.08.26	LDU Quito - Delfín	2:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
30.07.26	LDU Quito - Leones del Norte	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTLWW
- Mirassol
Brazilian Serie A
16.08.26	Mirassol - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Cruzeiro - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Grêmio - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Mirassol - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
13.08.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	1:1
07.05.26	Mirassol - LDU Quito	2:0
14.04.26	LDU Quito - Mirassol	2:0

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