Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Herrera A. (Ven)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Lanús		Universidad de Chile

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.25	5	Watch
	1.82	3.25	4.7
	1.85	3.35	4.54
	1.79	3.51	4.64	Watch
				Watch
	1.84	3.32	5.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.79)	3.34 ↓ (3.51)	4.85 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
52%

Draw
28.5%

Universidad de Chile
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

26.9%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

26.5%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Universidad de Chile has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.2%	11.1%	16.7%

Lanús - Universidad de Chile Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lanús: 51.5% – 92.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Lanús (2.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lanús will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 23. Carrera R. 19. Castillo R.	25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 2. Calderon F. 22. Zaldivia M. 15. Salomoni F. 8. Poblete Zuniga I. E. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 19. Altamirano J. 11. Guerra N. 18. Di Yorio L.
Substitutes
7. Acosta L. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 14. Canelo A. 21. Mendez A. 17. Morales L. (G) 2. Munoz E. 33. Ramirez J. 40. Romero L. 50. Sanchez F. 36. Segovia A. 8. Watson F. N.	27. Contreras R. 24. Diaz A. 21. Diaz M. 9. Fernandez L. 6. Fernandez N. 34. Moya F. 5. Ramirez N. 13. Retamal D. 14. Rodriguez S. 16. Sepulveda M. 3. Tapia I. 1. Toselli C. (G)
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Cardozo A. 🟨,
34', Acosta L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 1 - 0, Castillo R. ⚽, Marcelino Moreno (A),
65', Hormazabal F. 🟨,
70', Salomoni F. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
76', Guerrero Pena M. G. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
83', Carrera R. ↓, Watson F. N. ↑,
83', Salvio E. ↓, Mendez A. ↑,
86', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Canelo A. ↑,
86', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
90+2', Calderon F. ↓, Contreras R. ↑,
90+4', Medina A. ↓, Munoz E. ↑,
90+6', Fernandez L. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 2-2. 2nd leg.

Lanús is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Universidad de Chile has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Universidad de Chile may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lanús is seen as the favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Lanús won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Copa Sudamericana
23.10.25	Universidad de Chile - Lanús	2:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.10.25	Lanús - Godoy Cruz	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Independiente - Lanús	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Lanús - San Lorenzo	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWWWT
- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Primera Division
26.10.25	Universidad Católica - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.10.25	Universidad de Chile - Lanús	2:2 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
13.10.25	Universidad de Chile - Palestino	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Deportes La Serena - Universidad de Chile	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.09.25	Universidad de Chile - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
23.10.25	Universidad de Chile - Lanús	2:2
25.09.13	Universidad de Chile - Lanús	1:0
18.09.13	Lanús - Universidad de Chile	4:0

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