Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
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Italy	Como TV
Malaysia	Mola
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New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Paraguay	Tigo Sports+
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+, M+ Liga de Campeones 2, #Vamos
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+, DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter


	Universidad de Chile		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.9	3	Watch
	2.58	2.82	3.05	Watch
	2.63	2.89	3.22
	2.26	2.82	3.67	Watch
	2.53	2.92	3.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.55)	2.87 ↓ (3.04)	3.2 ↑ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Chile
37.6%

Draw
32.9%

Lanús
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

30.8%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37%

30.6%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Chile has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	66.7%	22.2%

Universidad de Chile - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Lanús will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Lanús (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 2. Calderon F. 22. Zaldivia M. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 8. Poblete Zuniga I. E. 19. Altamirano J. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 16. Sepulveda M. 11. Guerra N. 10. Assadi L.	26. Losada N. (G) 4. Perez G. 24. Izquierdoz C. (C) 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 23. Carrera R. 19. Castillo R.
Substitutes
24. Diaz A. 21. Diaz M. 18. Di Yorio L. 9. Fernandez L. 34. Moya F. 5. Ramirez N. 13. Retamal D. 14. Rodriguez S. 15. Salomoni F. 3. Tapia I. 1. Toselli C. (G) 23. Vasquez Gonzalez I. A.	7. Acosta L. 25. Aquino D. 9. Bou W. 14. Canelo A. 21. Mendez A. 17. Morales L. (G) 3. Morgantini N. 2. Munoz E. 33. Ramirez J. 40. Romero L. 50. Sanchez F. 8. Watson F. N.
Coaches
Alvarez G.	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Zaldivia M. 🟨,
25', 0 - 1, Castillo R. ⚽,
29', 0 - 2, Castillo R. ⚽, Salvio E. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
61', Guerra N. ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
62', Sepulveda M. ↓, Salomoni F. ↑,
63', 1 - 2, Di Yorio L. ⚽,
66', Perez G. 🟨,
79', Guerrero Pena M. G. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
80', Marcich S. 🟨,
83', Salvio E. ↓, Mendez A. ↑,
85', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Canelo A. ↑,
86', Castillo R. ↓, Bou W. ↑,
89', Carrera R. 🟨,
90+1', Bou W. 🟨,
90+4', Medina A. ↓, Ramirez J. ↑,
90+4', Perez G. ↓, Munoz E. ↑,
90+8', Izquierdoz C. 🟨,
90+8', Losada N. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 2, Aranguiz C. (Pen),

Preview

1st leg.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Universidad de Chile may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Universidad de Chile won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Universidad de Chile won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Lanús - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.43%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Primera Division
13.10.25	Universidad de Chile - Palestino	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Deportes La Serena - Universidad de Chile	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.09.25	Universidad de Chile - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
18.09.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad de Chile	0:0 ✺
Chilean Super Cup
14.09.25	Colo-Colo - Universidad de Chile	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTWTW
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.10.25	Lanús - Godoy Cruz	2:0 ✺
12.10.25	Independiente - Lanús	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Lanús - San Lorenzo	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.09.25	Fluminense - Lanús	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
25.09.13	Universidad de Chile - Lanús	1:0
18.09.13	Lanús - Universidad de Chile	4:0

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