Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Libertadores de América (Avellaneda)

Referee: Tello F. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN Premium
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Hong-kong	HOY TV
Israel	Sport 3
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente		Lanús

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.82	4.33	Watch
	2.1	2.92	4.05	Watch
	2.16	3.02	4.35
	2.1	2.97	4.18	Watch
	2.05	2.8	4
	2.09	2.88	4.15	Watch
	2.1	2.9	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.18)	2.9 (2.9)	4.18 ↑ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente
45%

Draw
32.5%

Lanús
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

31.9%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Lanús has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Independiente - Lanús Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Lanús will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 46.4% – 99%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Independiente (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rey R. (C) 29. Godoy L. 36. Valdez S. 26. Lomonaco K. 22. Zabala F. 8. Millan L. 23. Marcone I. 40. Malcorra I. 7. Montiel S. 9. Avalos G. 19. Abaldo M.	26. Losada N. (G) 33. Guidara T. 35. De Jesus R. 13. Canale Dominguez J. 6. Marcich S. 5. Pena Biafore F. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. (C) 8. Watson F. N. 23. Carrera R. 9. Bou W.
Substitutes
4. Arias S. 1. Blazquez J. (G) 20. Bodnar S. 10. Cabral L. 13. Fedorco J. 6. Freire N. 11. Mancuello F. 17. Mazzantti W. 16. Perez Curci M. 25. Pussetto I. 5. Rodrigo Fernandez 3. Valenzuela M.	25. Aquino D. 77. Besozzi L. 20. Cabrera B. 37. De Martis T. 24. Izquierdoz C. 17. Medina A. 3. Morgantini N. 4. Perez G. 1. Petroli F. (G) 2. Romero L. 27. Sanchez F. 16. Sepulveda M.
Coaches
Quinteros G.	Pellegrino M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Millan L. 🟨,
28', Marcich S. 🟨,
43', Losada N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Montiel S. ↓, Pussetto I. ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Abaldo M. ⚽, Malcorra I. (A),
63', 2 - 0, Avalos G. ⚽, Millan L. (A),
65', Carrera R. ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
65', Salvio E. ↓, Sepulveda M. ↑,
69', Pussetto I. 🟨,
75', Avalos G. 🟨,
76', Malcorra I. ↓, Cabral L. ↑,
76', Millan L. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
76', Watson F. N. ↓, Cabrera B. ↑,
76', Marcich S. ↓, De Martis T. ↑,
82', Bou W. ↓, Besozzi L. ↑,
88', Avalos G. ↓, Mazzantti W. ↑,
90+6', Marcone I. 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Independiente is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lanús: Loaiza R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Independiente: Lomonaco K. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 0.8:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Independiente - the odds 2.18 are the expected chance of winning is 42.48%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
08.02.26	Platense - Independiente	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Independiente - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Newells Old Boys - Independiente	1:1 ✺
23.01.26	Independiente - Estudiantes La Plata	1:1 ✺
Serie Rio de la Plata
16.01.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Independiente	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTTTW
- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.02.26	Lanús - Talleres de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
03.02.26	Instituto Córdoba - Lanús	2:2 ✺
29.01.26	Lanús - Unión Santa Fe	2:1 ✺
23.01.26	San Lorenzo - Lanús	2:3 ✺
Copa Argentina
18.01.26	Lanús - Sarmiento de La Banda	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.10.25	Independiente - Lanús	0:2
06.04.25	Lanús - Independiente	1:1
18.10.24	Lanús - Independiente	0:2
27.05.23	Independiente - Lanús	1:1
13.08.22	Lanús - Independiente	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
30.04.22	Lanús - Independiente	1:0
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.09.21	Independiente - Lanús	0:1

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