Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Universidad de Chile		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.45	3.95	Watch
	1.93	3.44	4.54
	1.32	4.78	9.66	Watch
	1.91	3.62	3.97	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (3.2)	3.66 ↑ (3.25)	4.8 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Chile
50.7%

Draw
28%

Alianza Lima
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

28.6%

42.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.3%

27.9%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Chile has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad de Chile's performance.

Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (-22.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Universidad de Chile that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+22.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	30.8%	7.7%

Universidad de Chile - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Universidad de Chile: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Universidad de Chile (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Alianza Lima (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Universidad de Chile (votes: 2 - 50%). Alianza Lima (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 2. Calderon F. 22. Zaldivia M. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 14. Rodriguez S. 19. Altamirano J. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 16. Sepulveda M. 11. Guerra N. 10. Assadi L.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 24. Chavez G. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 7. Gaibor F. 28. Burlamaqui A. 8. Castillo E. 18. Pena S. 19. Cantero A. 9. Barcos H. (C)
Substitutes
27. Contreras R. 24. Diaz A. 21. Diaz M. 18. Di Yorio L. 9. Fernandez L. 6. Fernandez N. 8. Poblete Zuniga I. E. 5. Ramirez N. 13. Retamal D. 15. Salomoni F. 3. Tapia I. 1. Toselli C. (G)	55. Aquino P. 17. Archimbaud J. 1. Campos A. (G) 15. Castillo J. 10. Ceppelini P. 3. Estrada J. 25. Gentile G. 14. Huaman M. 13. Lagos R. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K. 16. Succar M.
Coaches
Alvarez G.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Assadi L. ⚽, Sepulveda M. (A),
23', Garces R. 🟨,
32', Sepulveda M. ↓, Salomoni F. ↑,
38', Burlamaqui A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Burlamaqui A. ↓, Aquino P. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Altamirano J. ⚽, Guerrero Pena M. G. (A),
57', Guerrero Pena M. G. ↓, Ramirez N. ↑,
57', Pena S. ↓, Quevedo K. ↑,
58', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
63', Cantero A. ↓, Ceppelini P. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Castillo E. ⚽, Quevedo K. (A),
68', Guerra N. ↓, Di Yorio L. ↑,
68', Assadi L. ↓, Poblete Zuniga I. E. ↑,
68', Rodriguez S. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
72', Ramirez N. 🟨,
75', Zaldivia M. 🟨,
90+3', Enrique G. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

Recent form of Universidad de Chile has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Alianza Lima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Universidad de Chile may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Universidad de Chile has had a series of away games.

Universidad de Chile is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Universidad de Chile won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Lima - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.4%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Chile
Copa Sudamericana
18.09.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad de Chile	0:0 ✺
Chilean Super Cup
14.09.25	Colo-Colo - Universidad de Chile	0:3 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
31.08.25	Colo-Colo - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.25	Independiente - Universidad de Chile	Abandoned ✺
Chilean Primera Division
17.08.25	Universidad de Chile - Audax Italiano	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TWL?L
- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
21.09.25	Alianza Lima - Comerciantes Unidos	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
18.09.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad de Chile	0:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
13.09.25	Alianza Lima - Deportivo Garcilaso	3:4 ✺
24.08.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
20.08.25	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Alianza Lima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
18.09.25	Alianza Lima - Universidad de Chile	0:0

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