Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 18

Date: 9 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Universidad de Chile		Palestino

	1	X	2
	1.56	3.80	5.25	Watch
	1.62	3.80	5.00
	1.65	3.65	4.90	Watch
	1.63	4.01	5.66
	1.61	3.91	5.31	Watch
	1.60	3.95	5.55
	1.57	3.70	5.34	Watch
	1.57	3.80	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.83)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	5.25 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Universidad de Chile
58%

Draw
24.3%

Palestino
17.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

26.7%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

25.6%

21.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad de Chile has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad de Chile's performance.

Palestino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palestino than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Universidad de Chile - Palestino Predictions

Users Predictions: Universidad de Chile will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Castellon G. (G) 17. Hormazabal F. 22. Zaldivia M. 5. Ramirez N. 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 15. Reinhart T. 20. Aranguiz C. (C) 14. Morales M. 28. Arce A. 11. Eduardo Vargas 10. Assadi L.	25. Perez Kirby S. A. (G) 29. Garguez Gomez I. A. 2. Espinoza Hevia V. A. 3. Roco E. 28. Zuniga D. 7. Carrasco B. (C) 18. Gallegos S. 8. Meza N. 27. Munder C. 19. Da Silva N. 17. Eggel M.
Substitutes
19. Altamirano J. 2. Calderon F. 21. Diaz M. 6. Fernandez N. 18. Lucero J. 32. Reyna G. 31. Tamayo B. 1. Toselli C. (G) 23. Vasquez Gonzalez I. A.	14. Abrigo J. 11. Benitez J. 16. Bizama J. 12. Canto R. (G) 4. Ceza Gavilan A. A. 9. Fernandez R. 5. Glaby D. 15. Montes Romero F. T. 20. Tapia Paez G.
Coaches
Gago F.	Anca A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Arce A. ⚽, Assadi L. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Eduardo Vargas ⚽, Aranguiz C. (A),
41', Roco E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Carrasco B. ↓, Abrigo J. ↑,
53', Meza N. ↓, Glaby D. ↑,
53', Garguez Gomez I. A. ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
66', Assadi L. ↓, Altamirano J. ↑,
72', Eggel M. ↓, Fernandez R. ↑,
75', Glaby D. 🟨,
78', 2 - 1, Da Silva N. (Penalty Awarded),
83', Aranguiz C. ↓, Tamayo B. ↑,
84', Gallegos S. ↓, Tapia Paez G. ↑,
88', Arce A. ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
88', Guerrero Pena M. G. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Universidad de Chile won 3.

Universidad de Chile is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Palestino has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Palestino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Universidad de Chile is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Universidad de Chile will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Universidad de Chile won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Universidad de Chile won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.8:1.1).

Outrights of Chilean Primera Division for now

U. De Chile: 9.15% Palestino: 0.09%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	U. De Chile	23	12	6	5	35:19	16	42
5	Palestino	23	11	3	9	36:33	3	36

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad de Chile - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 51.08%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Cup
05.08.26	Unión San Felipe - Universidad de Chile	0:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
02.08.26	Universidad de Chile - Huachipato	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
05.07.26	Santiago Wanderers - Universidad de Chile	2:3 ✺
01.07.26	Universidad de Chile - Unión La Calera	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWWWL
- CD Palestino Santiago
Chilean Primera Division
01.08.26	Palestino - Coquimbo Unido	2:1 ✺
26.07.26	Ñublense - Palestino	2:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.07.26	Palestino - Deportes Santa Cruz	3:2 ✺
04.07.26	Deportes Magallanes - Palestino	1:2 ✺
30.06.26	Audax Italiano - Palestino	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Universidad de Chile - Palestino	1:2
Chilean Primera Division
13.02.26	Palestino - Universidad de Chile	0:0
13.10.25	Universidad de Chile - Palestino	2:1
27.04.25	Palestino - Universidad de Chile	2:3
15.09.24	Universidad de Chile - Palestino	1:0
Chilean Cup
09.09.24	Universidad de Chile - Palestino	0:1
05.09.24	Palestino - Universidad de Chile	0:5

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