Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Round 5

Date: 29 August 2025, Friday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Morrison C. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	Onefootball


	Larne		Ballymena United

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.1	4.1
	1.9	3.15	4.05
	1.94	3.16	4.52
	1.28	4.90	12.04	Watch
	1.91	3.3	3.9
	1.92	3.38	3.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 (1.8)	3.5 ↑ (3.23)	5.4 ↑ (4.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
54.1%

Draw
27.9%

Ballymena United
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

28.8%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

29.9%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Ballymena United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Larne than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ballymena United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Larne - Ballymena United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Larne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 30. Lusty M. 14. Magee B. 19. Nolan R. 10. O'Connor T. 8. Randall M. 3. Ridley M. 47. Simpson J.	1. O'Neill S. (C) 6. Ali G. 16. Clarke M. 31. Corbally K. 8. Jarvis A. 9. Kennedy B. 19. McCurry C. 10. McEleney P. 15. O'Donnell S. 20. Thompson J. 5. Toure D.
Substitutes
26. Bent D. 36. Graham D. (G) 40. Harkin M. 42. Hastings J. 7. McKendry C. 27. Moore K. 46. Wallace L.	23. Breen D. (G) 22. Edogun S. 3. Lafferty D. 25. Mccallion D. 2. Nelson K. 11. O'Conchubhair D. 17. O’Reilly J.
Coaches
Haveron G.	Ervin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Magee B. ⚽,
27', Ali G. 🟨,
35', Nolan R. 🟨,
36', O'Donnell S. 🟨,
45', Kennedy B. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Lusty M. 🟨,
61', Simpson J. ↓, McKendry C. ↑,
64', Jarvis A. ↓, O’Reilly J. ↑,
70', Gallagher C. 🟨,
72', Thompson J. ↓, Nelson K. ↑,
72', McCurry C. ↓, Edogun S. ↑,
73', Lusty M. ↓, Bent D. ↑,
87', Graham S. 🟨,
88', O'Connor T. ↓, Moore K. ↑,
90', O’Reilly J. 🟨,
90+3', Randall M. 🟨,
90+4', 2 - 0, Bent D. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NIFL Premiership (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larne won 3.

Larne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ballymena United is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Larne is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Larne won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.7:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Larne won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.4:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Larne - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.73%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
22.08.25	Larne - Portadown	4:0 ✺
19.08.25	Cliftonville - Larne	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Santa Clara - Larne	0:0 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
10.08.25	Coleraine - Larne	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Larne - Santa Clara	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.4 WTTLL
- Ballymena United
Northern Irish Premiership
23.08.25	Ballymena United - Bangor	4:0 ✺
19.08.25	Portadown - Ballymena United	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Glenavon - Ballymena United	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Ballymena United - Loughgall	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Shamrock Rovers - Ballymena United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
11.03.25	Ballymena United - Larne	1:2
25.01.25	Larne - Ballymena United	2:1
07.09.24	Larne - Ballymena United	0:1
17.02.24	Ballymena United - Larne	0:1
02.12.23	Ballymena United - Larne	0:0
15.08.23	Larne - Ballymena United	3:0
Northern Irish Cup
31.03.23	Larne - Ballymena United	0:2

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