Match Info

NIFL Premiership - Championship Group - Round 38

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Inver Park (Larne)

Referee: Boyce E. (Nir)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport


	Larne		Dungannon Swifts

	1	X	2
	1.2	6.25	11.5
	1.19	6.1	11.5
	1.2	6.61	11.42
	1.12	7.7	15	Watch
	1.2	6	13
	1.15	6.1	13.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.29)	6.46 ↑ (5)	12.65 ↑ (9.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
78.4%

Draw
14.3%

Dungannon Swifts
7.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.5%

18.4%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Larne's performance.

Dungannon Swifts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Larne - Dungannon Swifts Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Larne will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Larne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Larne (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Larne (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 23. Cosgrove T. (C) 4. Donnelly A. 6. Gallagher C. 11. Graham S. 30. Lusty M. 22. McEneff J. 21. Millar L. 3. Ridley M. 29. Ryan A. 46. Wallace L.	31. Glass D. (G) 13. Alves L. 27. Anderson S. 10. Dillon K. 6. Kelly T. 8. Knowles J. 35. Liggett E. 4. Maguire P. 5. Marron C. 17. McGinty C. (C) 20. Smith M.
Substitutes
15. Doherty R. 36. Graham D. (G) 7. McKendry C. 10. O'Connor T. 9. O'Neill P. 8. Randall M. 47. Simpson J.	34. Bigirimana G. 21. Doyle P. 12. Henderson A. (G) 33. Johnston J. 67. McAllister S. 24. McCarron D. 37. Smith C.
Coaches
Haveron G.	McAree R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Ryan A. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Lusty M. ⚽,
29', 3 - 0, Lusty M. ⚽,
42', 🟨,
2nd Half (5 - 0)
47', 4 - 0, Lusty M. ⚽,
53', 5 - 0, Ryan A. (Penalty Awarded),
56', McGinty C. ↓, Johnston J. ↑,
56', Alves L. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
56', Dillon K. ↓, Bigirimana G. ↑,
57', Lusty M. ↓, O'Neill P. ↑,
57', McEneff J. ↓, Doherty R. ↑,
57', Gallagher C. ↓, Randall M. ↑,
61', 6 - 0, Graham S. ⚽,
62', 🟨,
64', Millar L. ↓, McKendry C. ↑,
64', Graham S. ↓, Simpson J. ↑,
71', Marron C. ↓, McCarron D. ↑,
71', Kelly T. ↓, Doyle P. ↑,
72', 7 - 0, Ryan A. ⚽,
79', 8 - 0, O'Neill P. ⚽,

Preview

Larne is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (Qualification )

Dungannon is Qualified for NIFL Premiership (Conference League ~ Play Offs )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Larne won 2.

Larne has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Dungannon has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Dungannon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Larne is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Larne won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 37:17. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Larne won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 18:11. (average 2:1.2).

Outrights of Northern Irish Premiership for now

Larne: 29.31% Dungannon: 0.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Larne	6	5	1	0	12:3	9	16
7	Dungannon	9	4	1	4	9:10	-1	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
17.04.26	Glentoran - Larne	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Linfield - Larne	0:2 ✺
07.04.26	Larne - Coleraine	1:4 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
04.04.26	Coleraine - Larne	2:1 ET ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
28.03.26	Larne - Cliftonville	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TWLLW
- Dungannon Swifts
Northern Irish Premiership
18.04.26	Cliftonville - Dungannon Swifts	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Glentoran - Dungannon Swifts	5:0 ✺
07.04.26	Dungannon Swifts - Linfield	1:3 ✺
Northern Irish Cup
03.04.26	Cliftonville - Dungannon Swifts	1:2 penalties ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
28.03.26	Dungannon Swifts - Coleraine	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Premiership
13.03.26	Larne - Dungannon Swifts	2:1
29.11.25	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	1:2
04.10.25	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	2:0
01.04.25	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	1:1
22.02.25	Larne - Dungannon Swifts	0:1
23.12.24	Dungannon Swifts - Larne	0:1
06.10.24	Larne - Dungannon Swifts	0:3

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