Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Windsor Park (Belfast)

Referee: Barbara I. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 15
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
South-america	ViX Latin America
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport D2, Blue Sport D2
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 4
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Larne		St. Gallen

	1	X	2
	7	5	1.38
	6.75	4.75	1.37
	7.5	5	1.38
	7.53	5.11	1.39
	6.9	5.07	1.38	Watch
	6.5	4.8	1.35
	7.6	5.03	1.42
	7.5	5	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.16 ↑ (5.5)	4.97 ↑ (4.6)	1.38 ↓ (1.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Larne
13.1%

Draw
18.9%

St. Gallen
68%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.3%

19.5%

64.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

17.8%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Larne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

St. Gallen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Larne than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Gallen than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Gallen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	15%	80%

Larne - St. Gallen Predictions

Users Predictions: St. Gallen will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ferguson R. (G) 17. Seary J. 20. Todd S. 18. Bolger C. (C) 2. Want S. 3. Ives L. 27. Gallagher C. 6. Thomson J. 25. Sloan D. 29. Ryan A. 16. McEneff J.	1. Ati Zigi L. (G) 28. Vandermersch H. 20. Vallci A. 15. Diaby A. 36. Okoroji C. 64. Stevanovic M. 16. Gortler L. (C) 77. Csoboth K. 24. Toma B. 9. Geubbels W. 10. Akolo C.
Substitutes
4. Donnelly A. 11. Graham S. 31. Joe B. (G) 30. Lusty M. 14. Magee B. 7. McKendry C. 9. O'Neill P. 8. Randall M.	11. Cisse M. 22. Faber K. 63. Konietzke C. 60. Muslija G. (G) 14. Noah Yannick 30. Ruiz V. 25. Watkowiak L. (G) 7. Witzig C.
Coaches
Lynch T.	Maassen E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Diaby A. (Own goal), McEneff J. (A),
29', 1 - 1, Gortler L. ⚽, Okoroji C. (A),
37', Ives L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Vallci A. 🟨,
75', Csoboth K. ↓, Witzig C. ↑,
75', Toma B. ↓, Konietzke C. ↑,
75', Sloan D. ↓, Graham S. ↑,
75', McEneff J. ↓, Lusty M. ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Vandermersch H. ⚽, Witzig C. (A),
82', Gallagher C. ↓, Donnelly A. ↑,
82', Ryan A. ↓, Randall M. ↑,
89', Akolo C. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
90', Want S. ↓, Magee B. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Windsor Park.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Larne could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match St. Gallen is certain favorite.

There will not play in St. Gallen: Ambrosius S. (Injury) Karlen G. (Injury) Milosevic J. (Injury) Nuhu M. (Injury)

There are questionable in St. Gallen: Fazliji B. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Larne FC
Northern Irish Premiership
02.11.24	Glentoran - Larne	0:2 ✺
27.10.24	Portadown - Larne	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Larne - Shamrock Rovers	1:4 ✺
Northern Irish Premiership
19.10.24	Larne - Crusaders	1:1 ✺
06.10.24	Larne - Dungannon Swifts	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLTL
- FC St. Gallen
Swiss Super League
02.11.24	St. Gallen - Sion	1:1 ✺
30.10.24	St. Gallen - Winterthur	2:2 ✺
27.10.24	Sion - St. Gallen	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	St. Gallen - Fiorentina	2:4 ✺
Swiss Super League
20.10.24	Basel - St. Gallen	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TTTLL

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