Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Cashman Field (Las Vegas, NV)

Referee: Ndiaye A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+, FanDuel Sports Network Florida


	Las Vegas Lights		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.3	2.85
	2.15	3.45	2.98
	2.25	3.56	3
	2.23	3.55	2.94	Watch
	2.21	3.59	2.95	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.18)	3.49 ↓ (3.49)	2.94 ↓ (3.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Lights
42.1%

Draw
26.5%

Miami
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

26.6%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

26.1%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Lights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Miami has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Miami than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Las Vegas Lights - Miami Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
56. Arozarena R. (G) 23. Boudadi Y. 4. Herbert A. 5. Gartig E. 33. Nigro G. 17. Leal P. 22. McNamara T. (C) 21. Probo G. 8. Gannon C. 9. Pickering N. 14. Rodriguez J.	1. Campisi N. (G) 2. Ricketts J. 13. Knutson D. 93. Garcia D. 3. Mitrano A. 8. Romero M. 5. Mercado Carrizo D. A. 18. Zarate T. 30. Vazquez C. 7. Gavilanes A. 9. Bonfiglio F.
Substitutes
1. Ammeter N. (G) 10. Azcona E. 98. Gaines M. 3. Jones N. 6. Pearson C. 18. Singer J. 30. Stojanovic S.	35. Bent B. 10. Blanco S. 22. Celeste F. 16. Diaz G. 29. Hoyos K. 26. Melano L. 31. Rodriguez F. (G) 6. Tulu 11. Veron D.
Coaches
Rensing D.	Maddoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Probo G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Zarate T. ↓, Melano L. ↑,
62', Pickering N. ↓, Stojanovic S. ↑,
62', Leal P. ↓, Gaines M. ↑,
67', Garcia D. 🟨,
69', Gavilanes A. ↓, Blanco S. ↑,
75', Knutson D. 🟨,
77', Mercado Carrizo D. A. 🟨,
79', Rodriguez J. ↓, Azcona E. ↑,
80', Blanco S. 🟨,
81', Mitrano A. ↓, Veron D. ↑,
82', Vazquez C. ↓, Bent B. ↑,
82', Mercado Carrizo D. A. ↓, Diaz G. ↑,
83', Herbert A. ↓, Pearson C. ↑,
90', 🟨,

Preview

Recent performances by Las Vegas have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Miami is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Miami may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Las Vegas will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:7. (average 2.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Las Vegas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship
05.09.25	Phoenix Rising - Las Vegas Lights	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - Lexington	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - North Carolina	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	New Mexico United - Las Vegas Lights	2:2 ✺
09.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 TWLTT
- Miami FC
USL Championship
06.09.25	Miami - Hartford Athletic	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Loudoun United - Miami	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Indy Eleven - Miami	3:2 ✺
16.08.25	Miami - Louisville City	2:4 ✺
09.08.25	Miami - El Paso Locomotive	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
08.06.24	Las Vegas Lights - Miami	3:1
23.04.23	Miami - Las Vegas Lights	4:1
08.10.22	Las Vegas Lights - Miami	3:2

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