Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Michael A. Carroll Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

Referee: Rodriguez C. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Indy Eleven		Miami

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.80	3.80
	1.64	3.75	4.10
	1.72	4.19	4.33
	1.72	4.24	3.97	Watch
	1.69	4.30	4.10
	1.72	4.16	4.06	Watch
	1.70	3.90	3.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.71)	4.05 ↓ (4.27)	4.04 ↑ (3.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Indy Eleven
54.4%

Draw
22.8%

Miami
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

21.7%

24.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

21.1%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Indy Eleven has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Miami has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miami than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Indy Eleven - Miami Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Indy (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Indy (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dick E. (G) 13. Hafferty J. 36. Kibunguchy N. 37. Craig P. 29. Mitrano A. 8. Blake J. 14. Quinn A. (C) 5. O'Brien J. 90. Mesanvi L. 20. Sing D. 15. Henry-Scott M.	31. Rodriguez F. (G) 12. Ndiaye B. 14. Rogers A. 13. Knutson D. (C) 21. Milesi A. 8. Romero M. 22. Da Costa R. 9. Sonora J. 7. Tunbridge M. 24. Milanes Navarro C. D. 26. Rocha A.
Substitutes
39. Barry H. 23. Charles-Cook R. (G) 19. Kizza E. 21. Rasheed M.	4. Calfo A. 17. Levin J. 30. Medranda J. 37. Mello D. 23. Musto T. 41. Rodriguez J. (G) 6. Tulu
Coaches
McAuley S.	Maddoni G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
10', Milesi A. 🟨,
16', Quinn A. 🟨,
17', 0 - 1, Da Costa R. ⚽,
20', Ndiaye B. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Tunbridge M. ⚽, Sonora J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Sing D. ↓, Rasheed M. ↑,
55', Knutson D. 🟨,
59', Ndiaye B. ↓, Tulu ↑,
61', Milanes Navarro C. D. 🟨,
63', Craig P. ↓, Barry H. ↑,
69', Tunbridge M. ↓, Musto T. ↑,
75', O'Brien J. ↓, Kizza E. ↑,
85', Rocha A. ↓, Medranda J. ↑,
90+2', Hafferty J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Indy won 4.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Miami has had a run of games away from home.

In this matchup, Indy is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Indy has recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:22 (averaging 1.4:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Indy against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 11:9 goals (averaging 1.4:1.1 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
20.09.26	Indy Eleven - Oakland Roots	0:1 ✺
15.09.26	Indy Eleven - Brooklyn	4:0 ✺
11.09.26	New Mexico United - Indy Eleven	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Indy Eleven - Birmingham Legion	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Phoenix Rising - Indy Eleven	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWTTL
- Miami FC
USL Championship
19.09.26	Rhode Island - Miami	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Brooklyn - Miami	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Miami - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2:2 ✺
24.08.26	Charleston Battery - Miami	5:0 ✺
15.08.26	Hartford Athletic - Miami	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
15.07.26	Miami - Indy Eleven	2:0
23.08.25	Indy Eleven - Miami	3:2
US Open Cup
16.04.25	Indy Eleven - Miami	1:0 ET
USL Championship
15.03.25	Miami - Indy Eleven	1:3
28.09.24	Indy Eleven - Miami	4:0
12.05.24	Miami - Indy Eleven	1:3
02.09.23	Indy Eleven - Miami	1:0

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