Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 20 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Cashman Field (Las Vegas, NV)

Referee: Flores G. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Usa	CBS Sports Network, NESN Plus, Paramount+


	Las Vegas Lights		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.30	2.85
	2.2	3.35	2.92
	2.33	3.56	3
	2.25	3.66	2.85	Watch
	2.2	3.25	2.88
	2.24	3.32	2.85	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.02)	3.41 ↓ (3.56)	2.89 ↓ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Las Vegas Lights
41.2%

Draw
27%

Orange County SC
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

25.8%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

24.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Las Vegas Lights has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Las Vegas Lights, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Las Vegas Lights - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Stajduhar M. (G) 45. Pope B. 3. Jones N. 33. Guillen A. 81. Antonoglou T. 11. Pinzon C. 23. Ybarra M. 8. Scott K. 25. Anderson O. 9. Arteaga M. 14. Rodriguez J.	1. Rando A. (G) 2. Doody G. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 6. Tubbs G. 4. Benalcazar N. 11. MacKinnon L. 32. Ciotta N. 27. Kelly S. 10. Hegardt C. 8. Sylla O. 12. Bazini Y.
Substitutes
13. Lanphier C. (G) 18. Locker C. 7. Mines B. 30. Ofeimu B. 43. Okyere A. 27. Probo G. 6. Sessock N.	15. Espy T. 17. Johnson J. 31. Kadono T. (G) 29. Kurnik O. 22. Marinch A. 28. O'Brien F. 18. Palomino M. 25. Solis E. 9. Zubak E.
Coaches
Rensing D.	Stone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
28', Doody G. ↓, Solis E. ↑,
38', 1 - 0, Anderson O. ⚽, Pinzon C. (A),
45', 1 - 1, MacKinnon L. ⚽, Kelly S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', Antonoglou T. 🟨,
55', 1 - 2, Bazini Y. ⚽,
63', Anderson O. ↓, Mines B. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Mines B. (A),
70', Hegardt C. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
70', Ciotta N. ↓, Espy T. ↑,
76', 2 - 3, Tubbs G. ⚽,
80', Ybarra M. ↓, Probo G. ↑,
86', Bazini Y. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
88', Scott K. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.

Las Vegas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Las Vegas won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 26:36. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Las Vegas won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.9:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship
13.06.26	Birmingham Legion - Las Vegas Lights	1:2 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	Las Vegas Lights - Oakland Roots	0:2 ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	Las Vegas Lights - Tulsa	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	Las Vegas Lights - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
17.05.26	Spokane Velocity - Las Vegas Lights	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLTWL
- Orange County SC
USL Championship
13.06.26	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	1:1 ✺
USL Cup
06.06.26	AV Alta - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
23.05.26	Orange County SC - Oakland Roots	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
16.05.26	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
08.05.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Orange County SC	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
07.03.26	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	1:1
19.07.25	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	4:0
USL Cup
26.04.25	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	1:3
USL Championship
05.04.25	Las Vegas Lights - Orange County SC	1:0
05.10.24	Las Vegas Lights - Orange County SC	1:1
31.08.24	Orange County SC - Las Vegas Lights	2:3
02.09.23	Las Vegas Lights - Orange County SC	1:5

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