Match Info

USL Cup

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Wild Horse Pass Stadium (Chandler, AZ)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Phoenix Rising		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.1	3.3
	1.98	3.25	3.35
	2.02	3.39	3.32
	2.28	2.89	3.38	Watch
	2	3.1	3.25
	2.02	3.25	3.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (2.03)	3.16 ↓ (3.26)	3.33 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Phoenix Rising
44.2%

Draw
28.6%

Orange County SC
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

28%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.1%

27.3%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Odunze C. (C) 33. Gaydon J. 4. Mar Boye P. 24. Pelayo A. 47. Cross N. 37. Rivera G. 13. Moursou J. 44. Ping J. 12. Dennis C. 91. Ramirez E. 11. Studenhofft G.	31. Kadono T. (G) 2. Doody G. 5. Brewitt T. 15. Espy T. 23. Doghman R. 14. Cambridge B. 25. Solis E. 10. Hegardt C. 17. Johnson J. 12. Bazini Y. 11. MacKinnon L.
Substitutes
10. Avayevu H. 80. Balanzar A. 20. Biasi L. 87. Flores D. 8. Gomez D. 17. JP Scearce 1. Rakovsky P. (G) 19. Rivera D. 2. Smith C.	32. Ciotta N. 33. Gentile J. (G) 27. Kelly S. 29. Kurnik O. 18. Palomino M. 1. Rando A. (G) 8. Sylla O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Johnson J. ⚽, Bazini Y. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Moursou J. ⚽, Studenhofft G. (A),
33', MacKinnon L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pelayo A. ↓, JP Scearce ↑,
49', Moursou J. 🟨,
63', Cambridge B. ↓, Sylla O. ↑,
63', MacKinnon L. ↓, Kurnik O. ↑,
65', Moursou J. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
65', Cross N. ↓, Biasi L. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Ramirez E. ⚽, Mar Boye P. (A),
73', Johnson J. ↓, Palomino M. ↑,
73', Doody G. ↓, Ciotta N. ↑,
80', Ping J. ↓, Rivera D. ↑,
87', Studenhofft G. ↓, Flores D. ↑,
90+3', Hegardt C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Phoenix Rising may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Phoenix Rising could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Phoenix Rising won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:8. (average 1.8:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Orange County SC - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 26.93%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
09.05.26	Phoenix Rising - San Antonio	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Phoenix Rising	0:1 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Phoenix Rising - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	0:1 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Miami - Phoenix Rising	0:3 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.26	San Jose Earthquakes - Phoenix Rising	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TWLWL
- Orange County SC
USL Championship
08.05.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Orange County SC	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
25.04.26	Orange County SC - El Paso Locomotive	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
18.04.26	Orange County SC - Lexington	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Tulsa - Orange County SC	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

US Open Cup
01.04.26	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ET
USL Championship
14.03.26	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	1:1
30.07.25	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	4:1
07.06.25	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	3:1
25.09.24	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	2:0
08.06.24	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	2:1
28.10.23	Orange County SC - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ET

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