Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 13 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park (Albuquerque, NM)

Referee: Garcia E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, ESPN App, ESPN+, NESN Plus
Venezuela	Disney+


	New Mexico United		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.82	3.40	3.60
	1.87	3.30	3.65
	1.92	3.96	3.85
	1.82	4.02	3.67	Watch
	1.85	3.30	3.60
	1.82	3.60	3.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.07)	3.6 ↑ (3.36)	3.68 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

New Mexico United
49.6%

Draw
25.5%

Orange County SC
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

27.4%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

27.3%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New Mexico United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in New Mexico United's performance.

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

New Mexico United - Orange County SC Predictions

Users Predictions: New Mexico United will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Shakes K. (G) 27. Howell M. 4. Keller K. 2. Hamalainen N. 3. Gloster C. 6. Zelalem G. 19. Bailey Z. 7. Reid-Stephen N. 15. Jabang O. 5. Harris D. 10. Hurst G. (C)	1. Rando A. (G) 2. Doody G. 5. Brewitt T. (C) 6. Tubbs G. 23. Doghman R. 11. MacKinnon L. 4. Benalcazar N. 27. Kelly S. 10. Hegardt C. 8. Sylla O. 12. Bazini Y.
Substitutes
29. Archimede L. 56. Arozarena R. (G) 24. Blackett T. 11. Nava C. 9. Rennicks J. 8. Vargas M. 54. Wente T. (G) 28. Wilkerson C.	14. Cambridge B. 32. Ciotta N. 15. Espy T. 13. Guimaraes P. 17. Johnson J. 31. Kadono T. (G) 22. Marinch A. 18. Palomino M. 25. Solis E.
Coaches
Sanchez D.	Stone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Keller K. ⚽, Hamalainen N. (A),
18', 1 - 1, Benalcazar N. ⚽, Hegardt C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', Doghman R. ↓, Ciotta N. ↑,
69', Zelalem G. ↓, Rennicks J. ↑,
69', Gloster C. ↓, Blackett T. ↑,
75', MacKinnon L. ↓, Cambridge B. ↑,
76', Sanchez D. 🟨,
83', Hegardt C. ↓, Guimaraes P. ↑,
83', Kelly S. ↓, Solis E. ↑,
89', Sylla O. 🟨,
89', Reid-Stephen N. ↓, Nava C. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, New Mexico won 3.

New Mexico has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Orange County SC is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orange County SC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.

New Mexico is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, New Mexico won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:10. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, New Mexico won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.8:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

New Mexico United - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 44.55%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Orange County SC - the odds 3.29 are the expected chance of winning is 28.04%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New Mexico United
USL Cup
06.06.26	New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising	4:0 ✺
USL Championship
30.05.26	Hartford Athletic - New Mexico United	0:0 ✺
23.05.26	New Mexico United - Charleston Battery	1:0 ✺
20.05.26	New Mexico United - Tampa Bay Rowdies	0:1 ✺
USL Cup
16.05.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - New Mexico United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWLL
- Orange County SC
USL Cup
06.06.26	AV Alta - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
23.05.26	Orange County SC - Oakland Roots	3:2 ✺
USL Cup
16.05.26	Phoenix Rising - Orange County SC	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
08.05.26	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Orange County SC	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	Sacramento Republic - Orange County SC	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
04.04.26	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	0:1
08.11.25	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	2:1
11.10.25	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	3:3
17.05.25	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	0:3
19.10.24	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	0:0
03.07.24	New Mexico United - Orange County SC	2:0
29.07.23	Orange County SC - New Mexico United	1:0

Upcoming Matches